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So, a new study based on antibody tests estimated that around 774 thousands Lebanese had been infected up with covid up tilll Dec 15 (when the official toll was 105Th). A total of 2177 antibody tests were done, and 98% of the persons who tested positive weren't aware that 1/n
they have been infected. So the actual toll is 7 times the official number, and that was before Christmas & NY surges. If we extrapolate to today's numbers, with an official nbr of 331 thousands; the actual nbr would be 2.3M infected Lebanese. I don't want to go into 2/n
percentages since we don't have an accurate number for the total population. @EidAzar lately estimated that a quarter of the population had been infected (taking SGUH staff as a representative sample) 3/n https://twitter.com/EidAzar/status/1359167603613261828?s=20
Keeping in mind that the new study found lower infections (up to 40%) in Beirut; where most SGUH staff would be residing. So the numbers correlate.
We can argue a lot abt the specificity and accuracy of those tests, as well as the number of tests done (that increased 4/n
We can argue a lot abt the specificity and accuracy of those tests, as well as the number of tests done (that increased 4/n
around NY, but then dropped sharply). Still I think we can safely assume that around 2M Lebanese have been already infected; however with a huge majority unaware. This can have a major impact on the vaccination strategy, by delaying the vaccination of persons already infected 5/n
and giving them one shot instead of 2. An antibody test should be required prior to the vaccination. 2M infected, we only know of 0.3M; that's 1.7M that are already immune
Link: https://ch23.com/article/259864/%D9%83%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%86%D8%A7-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-..-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%B3%D8%A8%D8%B9%D8%A9-%D8%A3%D8%B6%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86%D8%A9
@mophleb @Hamad_hassan20 @firassabiad @ChangSara @JadeKhalife @dr_ar_bizri
Link: https://ch23.com/article/259864/%D9%83%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%86%D8%A7-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-..-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%B3%D8%A8%D8%B9%D8%A9-%D8%A3%D8%B6%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86%D8%A9
@mophleb @Hamad_hassan20 @firassabiad @ChangSara @JadeKhalife @dr_ar_bizri
