Let’s be very clear. Disengagement is NOT taking place bcoz China suddenly realized it overstretched itself or became aware of the risks of escalation or bcoz of “profound changes” (Biden’s victory?). Nor has BJ changed its fundamental views of India or the US. Nope. Not at all.
The IA’s occupation of the Kailash range was a major setback for the PLA post-Galvan clash. Once India agreed to vacate it in exchange for a no-man’s land between 4-8 Fingers that no side actually occupied, disengagement became possible. It’s an agreement limited to Pangong Tso.
In 2012, Beijing & Manila reached a deal on mutual withdrawal of warships from the Scarborough Shoal in the SCS. Manila followed through but Beijing reneged & kept its ships at the shoal.
The moral of the story: Don’t just verify. Adopt measures that make it difficult to renege.
Armed drones, dedicated satellites, ELINT, HUMINT and other military measures can be helpful along with rapid mobilization to impose overwhelming economic, diplomatic & military costs on the adversary.
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