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Reposting updated data on Drug Overdose deaths from Jan-July, 2015-2020*. Please read my threaded explanation before commenting or posing questions/reactions.
Feedback welcome
*2020 data are provisional
1/12
Feedback welcome
*2020 data are provisional
1/12
Data are from two monthly-count sources newly-posted by the CDC on February 3, 2020.
Footnotes for 2020-21 data file, left image
Footnotes for 2014-2019 data file, right image
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Monthly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-Select-Causes-2014-201/bxq8-mugm
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Monthly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-Select-Causes-2020-202/9dzk-mvmi
2/12
Footnotes for 2020-21 data file, left image
Footnotes for 2014-2019 data file, right image
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Monthly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-Select-Causes-2014-201/bxq8-mugm
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Monthly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-Select-Causes-2020-202/9dzk-mvmi
2/12
Neither data set provides cause of death codes for the Drug Overdose category, which is a bit odd, as codes are provided for other causes in the files
3/12
3/12
I emailed the CDC yesterday to inquire about what all is included in Drug Overdose in these data.
They said, "Overdose deaths [in the dataset] contain mostly unintentional deaths, but also suicide, unknown intent and a few homicides."
4/12
They said, "Overdose deaths [in the dataset] contain mostly unintentional deaths, but also suicide, unknown intent and a few homicides."
4/12
Due to the footnotes & that email I'm not positive that the two new monthly datasets are comparable.
However, were's the latest 2020 data https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Monthly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-Select-Causes-2020-202/9dzk-mvmi alongside the data 2015-2019 CDC Wonder data: https://wonder.cdc.gov
5/12
However, were's the latest 2020 data https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Monthly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-Select-Causes-2020-202/9dzk-mvmi alongside the data 2015-2019 CDC Wonder data: https://wonder.cdc.gov
5/12
If you're wondering, the Wonder data uses underlying cause-of-death codes X40âX44, X60âX64, X85, and Y10âY14.
I referred to this December CDC publication for those codes. https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2020/han00438.asp
6/12
I referred to this December CDC publication for those codes. https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2020/han00438.asp
6/12
No matter what, the CDC has already recognized the role of the pandemic in accelerating opioid deaths. Per my email with the agency, the data in the files I've used DOES include suicides that involve drugs.
7/12
7/12
Are these "lockdown deaths"?
I think it's at least fair to say they are lockdown-assisted deaths.
Even if we assume these were folks who were already struggling with addictions, let's consider how pandemic-response may have played a role...
8/12
I think it's at least fair to say they are lockdown-assisted deaths.
Even if we assume these were folks who were already struggling with addictions, let's consider how pandemic-response may have played a role...
8/12
1) People were furloughed or unemployed.
2) People were cut off from in-person therapies/treatments.
3) The Government sent $600 checks that may have be used to purchase more drugs and alcohol.
4) People were at home more - where I assume drug use tends to occur.
9/12
2) People were cut off from in-person therapies/treatments.
3) The Government sent $600 checks that may have be used to purchase more drugs and alcohol.
4) People were at home more - where I assume drug use tends to occur.
9/12
I've tweeted previously about increases at deaths at home in 2020 - which were NOT "displaced" from other locations, as some folks have alleged.
My guess is that drug overdose deaths occur largely at home.
10/12 https://twitter.com/EWoodhouse7/status/1351768162606444546?s=20
My guess is that drug overdose deaths occur largely at home.
10/12 https://twitter.com/EWoodhouse7/status/1351768162606444546?s=20
We also know that there is excess death in 2020 among younger age groups that is not fully explained by COVID-19. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2774445
Thus far, the CDC has not provided data by age and cause of death for drug overdoses or other non-natural causes.
11/12
Thus far, the CDC has not provided data by age and cause of death for drug overdoses or other non-natural causes.
11/12
Finally, I don't know if the Drug Overdose deaths in the CDC's monthly files include any COVID deaths. (I know they do in Cook County: https://twitter.com/EWoodhouse7/status/1351411848088854531?s=20
Footnotes imply not, but I've requested that info from them for clarity and am awaiting a response.
12/12 END THREAD
Footnotes imply not, but I've requested that info from them for clarity and am awaiting a response.
12/12 END THREAD
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