A #COVID19Vic thread. 1/
We're all gutted. We're all scared. We don't want to go through 2020 again. We won't.
Our public health leaders are dealing with incredible uncertainty, weighing risks and probabilities with very serious outcomes. Decisive action is therefore appropriate
2/ if at the end of 5 days there are no new cases and we open. This will be called an over-reaction. But we will never see the alternate pathway. An over-reaction is always desirable to the reverse scenario. These are not hypotheticals, there are no second chances. #COVID19Vic...
3/ but how did we get here?
We're all familiar with the Swiss cheese now.
1. What circumstances led to the nebuliser use? 2. Ventilation in the room/corridor? 3. PPE of the staff including faceshields/n95s/fit testing?
Etc etc.... #Quarantine #covid19aus...
4/ ultimately what we see here is the failure of the hotel quarantine model. An incredibly successful emergency measure but never fit for purpose. CQV created the most risk averse model possible - ventilation MX, daily staff testing, pre-contact tracing + continuous improvement..
5/ this still happened.
Hotels are not quarantine stations for infectious diseases. Quarantine is complex. COVID-19 is evolving.

The only viable model is Howard Springs model.
-Individual units.
-No cross ventilation or corridors.
-Fresh air for returnees.
-prox. healthcare
6/whilst we will never know. It's likely that had someone used a nebuliser in a standalone cabin noone would have been infected.

Facilities like Howard Springs cost money to build/maintain. But as our treasurer liked to remind us - so did our 2020 lockdown, so does jobkeeper...
7/vaccine is coming. But there is still a journey to go here. And more pandemics may come.

At Point Nepean there is a Quarantine station, built in 1852.

I think the time has come to build some more.

Vic, NSW, Qld, WA, SA...can't say the Commonwealth hasn't had fair warning.
8/
#freedom2 was a blast.
#freedom3 will taste even sweeter.

Look after each other #teamvictoria
We've got this đź‘Š
You can follow @bloch_aaron.
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