Sorry to say I'm here with some hard reality checks for people already planning their post-vaccine summer (and sorry to say even fall/winter.)

But first we need to talk about herd immunity and why it matters.

A lot of people associate that term with the genocidal strategies that said we should just let the virus run its course so enough people could become immune.

(And even if you ignored the genocide aspect, that strategy was still a failure because reinfections can and do occur.)

So why am I saying that herd immunity *IS* important then?

Because while the term was co-opted by those pushing their genocidal "reopen America" plans, "push as many people to get infected as possible" has NEVER actually been what herd immunity means or how its meant to be used.

Herd immunity has always been a goal we seek through *vaccination,* not some genocidal survival of the fittest eugenics plan.

And it's a goal we cannot ignore or forget with Covid-19.

We actually NEED herd immunity to end this pandemic.

Without herd immunity, Covid will continue to spread among the unvaccinated & continue to kill. And the more hosts Covid can still infect, the more opportunities it has to mutate - and the more likely a vaccine resistant strain becomes.

Which brings EVERYONE back to square one.

And unfortunately, when you have a population that is only partially vaccinated, but not enough to achieve herd immunity? That's actually the *ideal* breeding ground for the virus to figure out vaccine resistant mutations.

So what does all of this mean?

It means without ever reaching herd immunity, we could remain trapped in an endless cycle of infections > new mutations > new vax resistant strains > infections now spreading among the already vaxxed > requiring new shots to be developed... around & around again...

So why did we need this chat about herd immunity? I mean, what does ANY of this have to do with our summer (or even fall/winter) plans?

Stick with me:

The estimates for what percentage of the population would need to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity for Covid19 were already pretty high to begin with - around 70%.

But that was *BEFORE* b117 started to take over as the dominant strain.

Why does that matter?

Because the formula to get that number depends heavily on R0, meaning how contagious the disease is.

B117 is SIGNIFICANTLY more contagious, which means the the percentage of the population that will need to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity just shot way up.

HOW far up?

Instead of needing 70%, new estimates put us at a whopping 80-85% of the population needing to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity now.

And remember, this is the WHOLE population, not just adults - & we don't even have a vax approved for children yet. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1355697452926590980?s=20

That fact, that we don't even have approval for a vax for children yet, already means that there is basically *no* realistic chance that we will achieve herd immunity by summer.

Even if you could somehow vax every single adult in the entire US by summer, we'd still be short.

But even IF we could somehow remove the kids from the equation (which we can't) and JUST look at the adults? The odds of getting 80-85% of all US adults vaxxed by even the end of this *YEAR* (let alone by this summer) are.... not solid.

Add up the # of ppl w/ legitimate health reasons they can't be vaxxed + those who simply WONT?

And you've got a real problem.

And that's BEFORE adding any potential issues w/ distribution, production shortfalls, delays, or lack of access for ppl that ARE willing to be vaxxed.

Put it all together and it means:

-right now the odds that we will achieve herd immunity by this SUMMER are virtually non-existent.

-the odds we can reach it by the end of 2021? Definitely not anywhere near a "sure thing." It's still very questionable at this point.

So what does any of this mean for our 2021 plans though?

What bearing does the timing on reaching herd immunity have on whether or not we can start doing more things/seeing more people/loosening up restrictions?

"As long as **I** get vaccinated, then I'll be safe right?"

3 important things to keep in mind.

None of the vaccines are 100% effective. Yes, the odds of getting sick are small once you've been vaxxed, but they aren't 0. And new variants keep popping up that the vaccines are *already* less effective against. Expect more of that.

We don't know yet if these vaccines prevent you from carrying/spreading Covid to others.

So although you'll become less likely to *get* sick doing things like eating at an indoor restaurant? Unless you're cool with possibly infecting everyone ELSE there, it's still a no go.

Remember what we talked about earlier about how a partially vaccinated population actually makes it *more* likely that the mutations that happen during this time lead to vax resistant strains?

We do not want to help those mutations along & send us ALL back to square one again.

That means even if you have already been vaxxed, until we reached herd immunity we need to remain vigilant about things that could spread Covid. Big indoor gatherings are STILL unwise. (Esp. things like conferences & weddings that have ppl flying in from lots of different places)

It means continuing to mask 100% of the time in public, and continuing to mask with most everyone who doesn't live in your home. (There *could* be more room for things like mask-free "bubbles" of loved ones when everyone in it is vaxxed, but only *if* cases also go down enough.)

And this unfortunately means schools in the fall can't just be an assumed "back to normal." We will need to look at factors like,

- approved vax for kids yet?
- how many students have actually BEEN vaxxed?
- how low is our local case count?
- what % of our local citizens vaxxed?

So all of this incredibly long thread to say:

We will NEED to vax enough of the population (currently estimated @ 80-85%) to obtain herd immunity if we ever want this pandemic to end.

And UNTIL we reach herd immunity, getting vaxxed does NOT mean you can go "get back to normal"

The vaccine is the most important step in ending this pandemic, but getting vaxxed doesn't mean the pandemic is then over for you.

I truly don't enjoy being the bad news gal, but there you have it.

Adjust your summer plans accordingly.