1/Thread

Lokman Slim’s assassination a multi-purpose murder that sends several messages internally and abroad.

2/Since Biden took office and there has been pressure from Iran on the US to remove sanctions.

Biden’s position: Iran needs to respect the nuclear deal before sanctions are removed.

Iran’s position: Remove sanctions first then we go back to the deal.

3/ This lead Iran to increase pressure on multiple fronts to force Biden’s hand.

They started increasing uranium enrichment.

They started producing uranium metal.

The Houthis attacked a Saudi Airport.

4/So Lokman’s assassination can be seen in the framework of that increased pressure. It is a message to the US that we can do some damage from Sanaa to Beirut if you don’t budge.

Lokman was very close to the Americans and very critical of Hezbollah and Iran.

5/Lokman’s assassination is also a message of intimidation in this critical timeframe for Iran.

Iran wants to hold as many winning cards as possible in influencing Biden’s policy in the region. It will try to keep journalists & activists in check in all the countries it controls

6/Finally Lokman’s assassination is very similar to Hisham al-Hashemi’s assassination in July 2020 when a message was sent to Al-Kadhimi.

Hezbollah is sending a message, not only to activists and journalists, but also to politicians in Lebanon to stay within the red lines.