When the UK reopened from their fall lockdown (graph), cases were still high & variants were able to surge. The UK went back into lockdown within 3 weeks. Germany is learning from this & not reopening early. Today, the Ontario Science Table shows this is a lesson for us too. 1/7 https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1359588790709456902
Their modelling shows by mid- to late-March, Ontario could again be seeing record high daily cases. ICU occupancy would start increasing, before hospitals have even had a chance to get under their capacity threshold. Ontario is staring at another possible lockdown in 1 month. 2/7
Their modelling shows by mid- to late-March, Ontario could again be seeing record high daily cases. ICU occupancy would start increasing, before hospitals have even had a chance to get under their capacity threshold. Ontario is staring at another possible lockdown in 1 month. 2/7
Their modelling shows by mid- to late-March, Ontario could again be seeing record high daily cases. ICU occupancy would start increasing, before hospitals have even had a chance to get under their capacity threshold. Ontario is staring at another possible lockdown in 1 month. 2/7
To avoid this, we need to lower the reproductive number (R) to the equivalent of 0.7 for the current virus (OV); that equates to 1.0 with the new variant (NV). Ontario currently has a R just under 0.9 in lockdown. That equates to 1.26 with the new variant. Cases would surge. 3/7
To avoid this, we need to lower the reproductive number (R) to the equivalent of 0.7 for the current virus (OV); that equates to 1.0 with the new variant (NV). Ontario currently has a R just under 0.9 in lockdown. That equates to 1.26 with the new variant. Cases would surge. 3/7
To avoid this, we need to lower the reproductive number (R) to the equivalent of 0.7 for the current virus (OV); that equates to 1.0 with the new variant (NV). Ontario currently has a R just under 0.9 in lockdown. That equates to 1.26 with the new variant. Cases would surge. 3/7
That's with status quo. If we lift the lockdown, cases will rise even faster. Our case numbers are dropping, but they are still averaging well above the peak of the first wave. Ontario is primed to repeat the errors of the UK if we don't learn their lesson about reopening. 4/7
We are now in a race to vaccinate before the variants can catch-up. If cases are rising, health workers will be busy treating #COVID19 patients, stopping outbreaks, & contact tracing; they won't be available to vaccinate. And we need to buy more time to get vaccinations done. 5/7
@RNAO, @OntariosDoctors, & @OntHospitalAssn have raised concerns about the speed of reopening.

https://twitter.com/AnthonyDaleOHA/status/1359297014996074498?s=20

https://twitter.com/RNAO/status/1359505760980512772?s=20

Tomorrow, the province announces at what colour level regions reopen. I hope they are cautious & keep enough measures in place. 6/7
As Angela Merkel said,

"The time between now and the middle of March is when the experts are telling us that the mutated virus could gain the upper hand over the initial strain. It’s crucial that we lower the infection rate in this time period." 7/7 https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1359588790709456902?s=20
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