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What should vaccine transparency in the EU mean in practice and are we too pessimistic about EU vacc plans? ? Thx to @MESandbu I discovered that the 
health authorities have IMO "best practices" for "backward & forward looking vacc transparency 1/12 https://www.fhi.no/publ/plakat/vaksineringsscenario/
health authorities have IMO "best practices" for "backward & forward looking vacc transparency 1/12 https://www.fhi.no/publ/plakat/vaksineringsscenario/
health authorities public regularly updated scenarios for expected monthly vacc deliveries until July 2021 in two scenarios for "sober/realistic" and "optimistic" vacc availability. Interestingly, the latter imply we are far too pessimistic about the EU27/NO vacc rollout. 2/12
There is first of all NO obvious reason why the @EU_Commission could not publish similarly regularly updated - for each member state - monthly forward projections of expected - by individually approved vacc - vaccine deliveries 3/12
until July in multiple scenarios. Not doing so feeds excessive secrecy - bad for an organization plagued by obvious leadership glitches recently -& helps EU governments, too escape scrutiny for pandemic decisions. NO excuse not to do it @MamerEric @SKyriakidesEU @vonderleyen 4/12
Until vaccine delivery forecasts are available to public, forecasters are essentially flying blind and investment/spending decisions will be taken on inadequate basis. This is - for a region suffering early setbacks - dangerous, as it risks perpetuating an excessively gloomy 5/12
outlook for the trajectory of EU/NO vacc rollouts, resulting in potentially unwarranted economic pessimism and political disatisfaction. Consider what the NO vaccine delivery data forecast implies until July at the EU level (assuming vaccs are distributed according to pop). 6/12
The Sober/realistic scenario sees the EU27+NO receive a cumulative ~400mn doses of BioNTec/Moderna/AZ vaccines by end of July and monthly supplies reaching ~60mn by March. In other words, EU MS rollout plans better be fixed and ready to scale up in just 1 month! U confident? 7/12
In terms of the 16y+ population, the sober/realistic scenario with 3 vaccines used gives the EU enough to vacc slightly > 100%, or ~50% of the total 16y+ pop fully before the end of July. This is hardly a vaccine disaster for the EU, but not great either. 8/12
However, the really good potential news is in the optimistic scenario, which includes the approval of more vaccines and small increase in AZ vaccine deliveries. This sees the EU27+NO receiving ~650mn doses by end-July with deliveries of new vaccs picking up from May, incl. 9/12
presumably the single-jab J&J vacc. In terms of the 16y+ pop, this scenario would see the EU27+NO vacc 174%, and up to 196%, if you assume J&J single jab vaccs account for all "new vaccs". In other words, in a hardly unrealistic scenario where new vaccs become available to 10/12
EU27+NO by April and AZ delivers a bit more, essentially ALL Adult residents can be vaccinated by end of July! This does NOT appear to be a crazily optimistic scenario, but assumes of course that EU MS are able to administer these vaccs into arms of residents. Real Q is why 11/12
this is not the stated goal of @EU_Commission and EVERY EU MS? TMK only DK shares NO's stated goal of finishing vacc rollout by July (psstt - and likely finish ahead of both UK and US). Why not ALL of EU27? It is NOT a crazy goal - just ambitious. End https://www.sst.dk/-/media/Udgivelser/2021/Corona/Vaccination/Kalender/Specificeret-vaccinationskalender.ashx?la=da&hash=C2818CB774B7C56FCC64981CD7D6B3752EA026AF
@MESandbu
@GuntramWolff
@alanbeattie
@adam_tooze
@duncanrobinson
@Mij_Europe
@FerdiGiugliano
@SonyKapoor
@john_lichfield
@tom_nuttall
@spignal
@RobinWigg
@YanniKouts
@Sam1Fleming
@hallbenjamin
@HankeVela @StevenErlanger @nchrysoloras @StephenFidler1 @gideonrachman @Simon_Nixon
@GuntramWolff
@alanbeattie
@adam_tooze
@duncanrobinson
@Mij_Europe
@FerdiGiugliano
@SonyKapoor
@john_lichfield
@tom_nuttall
@spignal
@RobinWigg
@YanniKouts
@Sam1Fleming
@hallbenjamin
@HankeVela @StevenErlanger @nchrysoloras @StephenFidler1 @gideonrachman @Simon_Nixon
