I have a new piece in @ForeignAffairs: "Why Are Al Qaeda Leaders in Iran? What a Prisoner Exchange Reveals About an Unlikely Relationship" 1/8 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2021-02-11/why-are-al-qaeda-leaders-iran
Why Are Al Qaeda Leaders in Iran?

What a prisoner exchange reveals about an unlikely relationship.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2021-02-11/why-are-al-qaeda-leaders-iran
Last month outgoing SecState Pompeo gave a speech accusing Iran of being al-Qaida's "new home base" & "operational headquarters," saying “Ayman al-Zawahiri’s deputies … are living a normal al-Qaida life" in Iran today 2/8 https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-iran-al-qaida-axis//index.html
The Iran-al-Qa'ida Axis - United States Department of State

SECRETARY POMPEO:  Good morning, everyone. Thank you, Wang Xiyue, for that very kind introduction and those remarkable words, words that were your own.  We’re blessed to have you here today. Look, as...

https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-iran-al-qaida-axis//index.html
This seems exaggerated, but part of it rings true: Pompeo dated the change in Iran's relationship with AQ to 2015, which is when Iran & AQ agreed to a prisoner exchange 3/8 https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/18/world/middleeast/iran-released-top-members-of-al-qaeda-in-a-trade.html
Iran Released Top Members of Al Qaeda in a Trade (Published 2015)

Five men were released as part of a prisoner swap in March with Al Qaeda’s branch in Yemen. Iran denied that the men had been freed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/18/world/middleeast/iran-released-top-members-of-al-qaeda-in-a-trade.html
Much more about that exchange was revealed in 2017 amid an internal jihadi debate over Jabhat al-Nusra's decision to leave AQ: 4 AQ leaders had been released from Iranian detention and went to Syria, 2 others released but required to stay in Iran 4/8 https://twitter.com/colebunzel/status/1327677853568176128
In the course of that debate, Abu al-Qassam (aka Khalid al-'Aruri) noted that the two remaining leaders in Iran are "living their normal lives apart from not being allowed to travel"--similar to Pompeo's claim that Z's deputies "are living a normal al-Qaida life" in Iran 5/8
Yet Pompeo didn't mention the prisoner exchange as the source of this new state of affairs. He asserted Iran and AQ are now "partners in terrorism" on grounds that AQ leaders enjoy freedom in Iran today. But according to AQ their freedom is the result of a prisoner swap 6/8
In any event AQ hardly seems "poised to gain strength" (Pompeo's words) on account of what happened with Iran in 2015: At least 4 of the 6 AQ leaders released from Iranian detention have been killed (Abu al-Khayr al-Masri, Abu al-Qassam, Sari Shihab, & Abu Muhammad al-Masri) 7/8
I'm open to the idea of upgraded Iran-AQ ties, but I haven't seen evidence that would support it. I'd be more worried about AQ regaining strength in Afghanistan than in Iran 8/8
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