Read on Twitter
Yesterday I posted a thread satirizing the facile arguments made by O&G against renewables. Today I'll post my actual thoughts. https://twitter.com/HoustOil/status/1359502283390808068
This isn't intended to be comprehensive, rather to capture things that have caught my eye as I took a closer look over the last year or so.
1) Climate change is real and climate science is relatively mature as a field of study. To the extent there is a debate, its at the margins. The tipping point for me was learning that scientists at EXXON had identified AGW as a risk in the late 70s and developed accurate models.
Two things struck me about it, one, the vintage and, two, EXXON. This isn't something a cabal of woke professors ginned up in a lab to justify to come steal our cars and get grant money. https://mk0insideclimats3pe4.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/CO2-and-Fuel-Use-Projections.pdf
2) Wind and solar are already cost competitive at utility scale. Very soon they will be below the marginal (operating) costs of many natural gas plants. Coal is already left in the dust. https://www.lazard.com/media/451419/lazards-levelized-cost-of-energy-version-140.pdf
https://about.bnef.com/blog/scale-up-of-solar-and-wind-puts-existing-coal-gas-at-risk/#:~:text=Brandily%20added%3A%20%E2%80%9COn%20current%20trends,hour%20this%20side%20of%202030.&text=BNEF's%20global%20LCOE%20benchmark%20sits,with%20a%20four%2Dhour%20duration.
https://about.bnef.com/blog/scale-up-of-solar-and-wind-puts-existing-coal-gas-at-risk/#:~:text=Brandily%20added%3A%20%E2%80%9COn%20current%20trends,hour%20this%20side%20of%202030.&text=BNEF's%20global%20LCOE%20benchmark%20sits,with%20a%20four%2Dhour%20duration.
Even if you don't buy the economics, utilities do. Fully 80% of new generation coming online this year will be from wind and solar. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46416
EVEN if the economics don't pan out, I'm here to remind you that enormous investments, even if not profitable, can still cause massive shifts in markets. From 2010 to 2020 shale upended the global crude market all the while generating around $300 BILLION in negative cash flow.
3) EVs are going to win. For all you engineers think in terms of moving parts and thermal efficiency. Gasoline is incredibly energy dense but only like 30% of that potential energy ends up turning the wheels. ICE and drivetrains have like 2,000 moving parts. EVs have 20 Google it
4 and Last for now. Advocacy for renewables and/or a negative view of hydrocarbons is not misanthropic or anti modernity. A more valid criticism might be that its idealistic or utopian. You're basically arguing against luddites from the 70s and not engaging in the current moment.
Many of the renewable advocates I come accross are extremely optimistic about a future in which energy and transport costs much less than now. They're taking a 10, 20, 30 year view while us here in O&G are just trying to get through the next couple years w/ a job.
Final. A bet against renewable is a bet against innovation and our future. In 1000 years humans, assuming we're still around, will look back at this era with profound curiosity. We drilled holes miles underground to suck up the dinosaur juice and burned it for energy.
