French Covid thread. Depending on your viewpoint, the figures for the last week are “encouraging” (the government) or “misleadingly stable” (epidemiologists). Average daily cases and deaths fell for the first time in many weeks. But the “UK variant” continues to spread fast. 1/12

Ministers say the stats justify Prsdt Macron’s gamble 2 weeks ago in refusing a 3rd Fr. lockdown. Epidemiologists say the faster-moving UK and other variants will soon dominate – and cases/deaths will explode. The mutations are now 39% of cases in Paris area/ 21% nationwide. 2/12

The government admits that lockdown may still be necessary but they hope to avoid one. If it does happen - in March say - they believe Macron will given credit for preserving limited freedoms for as long as possible rather than blamed for risking lives. Maybe. Maybe not. 3/12

As things stand, the virus numbers that I follow weekly are remarkably stable – on a high plateau but sloping gently downwards (for now). The av. number of cases over 7 days was 19,208, compared to 20,614 last week. Av. daily deaths are down from 448.4 to 406.8. 4/12

The population of Covid patients in hospital also fell from 27,808 a week ago to 27,461 last night. Pressure on intensive care – perhaps the most significant stat of all but a lagging indicator – was slightly up at 3,319 patients, compared to 3,277 a week ago. 5/12

The French vaccine programme, which I have number-crunched critically in other threads, IS now going faster but still not fast enough to hit the relatively modest target of 4,000,000 injections (both first and 2nd) this month. 6/12

France has now given almost 2.5 injections since the programme began on 27 Dec. As of last night 443,148 have been fully vaccinated (two shots). This stat is not so far behind the UK (which has given circa 2nd 530,000 doses). On 1st doses the UK is miles ahead on around 13m. 7/12

This month so far France has given over 900,000 jabs (both kinds). To reach the 4,000,000 promised by PM Castex (now easier-to-use AstraZeneca doses are available) France must jab 172,000 people a day. Yesterday it hit 146,350 – a record. But weekend vax stats are woeful. 8/12

I also looked at France’s mortality figures. The total attributed to Covid since 1 March is now over 80,000 – 80, 443 to be exact. The “first wave” killed 30,000 people up to July 10 (circa 18 weeks). The 2nd wave has now killed 50,000 – including 30,000 in the last 12 weeks 9/12

The French C19 death stats remain reliable it seems (unlike some other countries). INSEE, the stats agency, says deaths from all causes rose 16% over 2019/20 from 1 Sept-25 Jan. That's 39,540 “extra deaths” of all kinds. The official Covid total for that period is 42, 833. 10/12

Who is dying of Covid in France? NOT just “very old people”. From 1 Sept to 25 Jan, deaths among 50-64 yr olds were 4% up; 65-74 13% up; 75-84 18% up and above 84 20% up. Among the under 25s, deaths were 10% down. Why? Fewer car crashes/ fights/ murders/accidents. 11/12

We are still in for a long, hard haul. Hang in there.
12/12