Thread by @chrishattoncedr, This new analysis from @ONS on COVID-19 deaths and disabled people includes [...]

This new analysis from @ONS on COVID-19 deaths and disabled people includes a new, really significant analysis of COVID-19 deaths among people with learning disabilities in England (sections 6-8). Quick thread on what I think is significant about it
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/coronaviruscovid19relateddeathsbydisabilitystatusenglandandwales/24januaryto20november2020
1/15

First, method. This connects GP records of 'learning disability' over the last 10 years to death certificate information, so it is much more comprehensive than LeDeR info (reliant on voluntary notifications) or NHSE hospital info.
2/15

This means that the ONS has recorded a much, much higher number of COVID-19 deaths amongst people with learning disabilities (2,955 people from 24 Jan to 20 Nov 2020) than the 775 deaths recorded by LeDeR and the 599 deaths recorded by NHSE over similar time periods.
3/15

And this grim, grim number is before the current peak of COVID-19 deaths among people with learning disabilities that is still happening now.
4/15

Second, timescale. This analysis is for a longer time period than the @PHE_uk detailed analysis (which was up to 5th June 2020), although it's not as up to date as the weekly info coming from LeDeR and NHSE). https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-deaths-of-people-with-learning-disabilities
5/15

COVID-19: deaths of people with learning disabilities

Review of available data on the deaths of people identified as having learning disabilities in England during the COVID-19 pandemic.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-deaths-of-people-with-learning-disabilities

This means they can do an analysis of deaths in the first peak of the pandemic compared to later, showing that the extra risk of COVID-19 deaths among people with learning disabilities has reduced slightly over time, but not by much.
6/15

Third, a comprehensive analysis of factors contributing to the extra risk of COVID-19 deaths that people with learning disabilities suffer (I think I can use 'suffer' in this context).
7/15

Adjusting for age, the risk of COVID-19 deaths was 3.7 times higher for people with learning disabilities than for other people (very similar to the 3.6 figure in the PHE report) - this extra risk for very similar for men and women.
8/15

This increased risk drops substantially (to 2.1 for men and 2.2 for women) when taking into account the kinds of places people were living.
9/15

As the ONS puts it "Much the largest effect was associated with place of residence, suggesting that living in a care home or other communal establishment was a major factor in the increased exposure of people with learning disabilities to COVID-19".
10/15

Taking into account other factors such as ethnicity, area and household deprivation, and social conditions further reduced the extra risk a relatively small amount (to 1.9 for men and women).
11/15

And finally, the much-vaunted 'underlying health conditions' and previous hospital admission only slightly reduced the extra risk of death from COVID-19 among people with learning disabilities to 1.7 for men and women.
12/15

So, even after taking into account all these factors that people talk about to 'explain' why people with learning disabilities are disproportionately likely to die from COVID-19, the risk of death is still 1.7 higher for people with learning disabilities compared to others
13/15

Institutional discrimination anybody?
14/15

Thanks to @ONS for this comprehensive analysis.
Can we please stop the 'inevitability' discourse around why people with learning disabilities are more likely to die from COVID-19, look at the consistent and comprehensive evidence, and act accordingly?
15/15

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