Everyone seems to be going a bit nutty about the Amsterdam share trading news. Is it news? Most definitely. But is it unexpected. Most definitely not.

Let’s start with what if means. Put really simply, in the absence of passporting (now an impossible dream) and most likely equivalence (looks increasingly dicey) the majority of EU related wholesale banking activity in the City will migrate to the EU.

Some of this will happen quickly. Some will happen slowly. The Amsterdam news is a good example. The physical activity has shifted but this probably doesn’t mean much in terms of jobs. Indeed, much of the shifting so far has been trading activity (and ‘money’) vs jobs.

But. The jobs will go. It’s as obvious a conclusion as Felix the dog’s reaction to a nice juicy sausage. They’ve proved sticky so far for the usual reasons - people often don’t like to move; it’s expensive to move businesses etc etc.

But, to paraphrase Yoda, ‘Move they will.’ Grey haired financial markets glitterati will remember that many London HQd investment banks used to have operations distributed throughout Europe which were moved to London...

...because of London’s undeniable advantages and crucially because of the Single Market. My sort of ready reckoner for the scale of the move (better answers are available) is circa 20% of wholesale business.

Is this the end of London as a hugely important financial services capital? No, of course not. But it is the first time in living memory that business has moved from London to Europe.

We are seeing the now classic Brexit impact pattern. Business based on single market membership is being unwound as European competitors to UK based firms receive a one off boost to their relative competitive advantage.

Comparative advantage, innit.