I LOVE Kyle Pitts.

I am also unlikely to own ANY Kyle Pitts in dynasty.

Let's dive in.

It really has nothing to do with how good he is. It is because he is a tight end and people dont value tight ends.

Evan Engram had the most receiving yards by a rookie tight end since the 2003 rookie class (by a decent margin).

That hall of fame pace type season netted Evan Engram an ADP of 40.

(this is all of the TE's taken in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts and how their ADP changed from their rookie year to their second year)

Engram has the HIGHEST 2nd year Tight End ADP we've seen as far back as I was able to find dynasty startup adp (2007).

So then we have to consider the alternative.... THE AVERAGE 2nd year adp for a dynasty first rounder at any position is 64.

Engram had an all time great rookie season and he only beat the AVERAGE adp by 24?

That seems "sub-optimal".

Here are the 2nd year ADP averages for each position for players selected in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts.

RB - 51
WR - 72
TE - 101

Keep in mind that the average ADP of RB's starts at the highest point, then WR's, then TE's so this isnt really surprising.

So lets go back to that pinnacle Evan Engram year 2 ADP of 40.

Here are the top year 2 ADP WR's from 2014-2018. I count 16 WR's, in that 5 year stretch, that were able to eclipse one of the best rookie TE seasons we've ever seen

I'm afraid I dont have the RB data in the same format so I cant show it as easily. So you'll have to trust me, its really high which should come as no surprise.

I am often told I am "too sure of myself" when it comes to my analysis which I find odd because my entire philosophy is basically built around, "what if we are wrong"?

So my question is, what if we are wrong about Pitts and he ISNT the best tight end we've ever seen?

What if he isn't substantially better than TJ Hockenson, Noah Fant, Evan Engram, OJ Howard, or David Njoku?

Those were all highly touted players coming out. NONE of them saw the same year 2 value as a ton of really mediocre WR prospects.

If Pitts has a best rookie season of all time is he really going to be unattainable? 'Cause Evan Engram wasnt "unattainable".

There are SEVERAL examples of WR's and RB's being unattainable after their rookie year. We are yet to see a TE have that kind of value bump.

Could it happen? of course.

But is it likely? I doubt it.

This is obviously very draft position specific. If Pitts is going in the top half of the first, I think that will go down as a catastrophic mistake. Not because hes bad, but because you mismanaged the opportunity cost.

At the 1/2 turn, I like his price a lot more.

In 1 QB leagues from 2014-2019 the ADP of the 1.12 in startups has been 85.

This has been the highest rookie year startup ADP among TE's since 2007.

I think Pitts belongs on the top side of this, but I am not sure I'd take him any higher than where OJH was going. I think Pitts is a better prospect though FWIW.

In rookie drafts I am 'hoping' to get production but 'expecting' to see value gains.

I cant imagine Pitts giving you meaningful year 1 production, and if you take him at an inflated price I dont think you are seeing any type of value gain either.

Which means you should take a player that has a reasonable chance of seeing a value/production spike in your rookie draft and trading for Pitts in year 2 if what *should be expected is what happens.

Even if he is the best rookie of all time, you can still probably "buy-high"

I know a lot of you have seen me talking about ADP trends and how I dont buy rookie year face planters.

If I were going to make an exception; Kyle Pitts and his possibly silly year 1 ADP would be it.

I love Kyle Pitts the prospect as much as anyone, but this talk of him in the first half of the first round is a price that is out of reach for me.

If you are into this type of analysis hit me up on patreon to get my dynasty and/or devy rankings and a discord chat filled with a bunch of SMART folks. https://www.patreon.com/DFBeanCounter