We can try to isolate the role game script/scheme play on a WR by holding constant some of their rate stats (y/tgt and tgt share/g) and adjusting their team pass attempts to league average. Here are the players who would benefit most from league average attempts (min 90 tgts):
Let's dig into these guys and see if there's any sign of higher pass volume on the way. My favorite way to do that is using @benbbaldwin's http://rbsdm.com  to look at neutral game script pass-heaviness. Last year it hinted at Buffalo trending towards more passing:
I'll give a summary here and then you can look at specific teams below if you want:
-GB is likely to throw more
-MIN/BAL might given the disappointing team performance last year
-None of the others look like obvious candidates
But that's okay! We're terrible at predicting situation a year out, and all my conclusions could be wrong. The point is these are players whose production does not match their underlying metrics. If they're priced like they are their production, you may have a buying opp.
Let's start with BAL. They were pretty close to flat y/y. I think it's fair to think they trend a bit towards passing more given the struggles they've seen in the playoffs, but this data isn't hinting at it.
On to TEN. They actually got more run happy this past season. Given Henry is under contract another year and they saw (relative) success in 2020, I see no reason to assume they ramp up neutral script passing.
Now CLE. They're also moving in the wrong direction, and I don't see any reason to assume they revert given last year's success.
MIN is the most interesting entrant on the list given how thoroughly Jeff and Thielen smashed this year. They were up slightly more 2019, and given the failure that was last year I don't think it's out of the question they could get more pass-heavy.
GB wants to pass, and they look like a team that could see more volume next season.
Finally NYG, who are moving in the wrong direction and I genuinely have no idea what they'll do next season.
Later this week I'll put together a similar thread on guys benefiting from high passing volume, keep an eye out.
You can follow @Cooper_DFF.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:

By continuing to use the site, you are consenting to the use of cookies as explained in our Cookie Policy to improve your experience.