Read on Twitter
As California COVID cases plummet despite the “reopening” (chart below), it is worth revisiting this CDC study showing ~2% seroprevalence of COVID in California in December 2019. Many panic-purveyors dismissed the study as implausible (“but where are all the dead bodies?”). 1/4
I am not so sure. Recall Calif. hospitals were absolutely empty in late March as Newsom was praised for his lockdown. It is now blatantly obvious there is an enormous seasonal component. We need to see where cases are in a month, but for now the trajectory looks unstoppable. 2/4
I often wonder what would have happened if we had medically treated COVID like any other respiratory virus instead of reacting with mass panic and hysteria. Healthcare workers have relayed stories of patients w/flu-like symptoms in 2019 in California testing negative for flu. 3/4
Maybe California 2019/2020 winter answers the riddle of what would have happened if we hadn’t panicked? Maybe COVID had already come and gone by March? One might even ask, maybe “The Curve Was Already Flat” (h/t @AJKayWriter). (4/4) https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472
