It may be difficult to have an all-island approach to Covid over the coming months given a clear divergence in vaccinations.

In the Republic, GPs expect to fully vaccinate over-70s by mid-June.

In the North, everyone over 65 will have been offered a first dose by end Feb. (1/9)
A dosing gap is being used in the North of 12 weeks.

All over-65s should have had both doses by May 9th.

Data suggests protection builds significantly before the second dose - a higher degree of immunity may exist earlier.

Many will also be fully vaccinated well before. (2/9)
At the same time, the 50-65s are due to receive jabs during Spring - with an aim to complete this by the Summer.

Pfizer and AstraZeneca are reputed to reduce transmission significantly - this could translate into lower cases north of the border and fewer hospitalisations. (3/9)
A revised European Commission schedule foresees the delivery of 968,000 doses to the Republic by the end of March and 3.3 million between the months of April and June.

But many of these are likely to come towards the end of the 2nd quarter. (4/9)
There are unknowables - the degree to which the South African variant spreads and impacts vaccines - the proportion of Johnson and Johnson single-dose jabs that will be available (if any) and whether guidance will change on using AstraZeneca among pensioners. (5/9)
Production could ramp up - allowing the Republic to catch-up at a higher rate.

But at the moment, with nearly one in every four adults in NI alteady having received their first dose - it seems it will have to be quite the catch-up.

This surely has implications ... (6/9)
If hospitals in the North are not under pressure and severe disease is less prevalent - there will be pressure to reopen society and the economy earlier.

Pubs, restaurants open in Belfast and Newry before Dublin and Dundalk? (7/9)
Much is unknown about the variants - and also the seasonal effects.

Fear of further mutations could ensure lockdown is maintained in the North despite vaccination.

Alternatively, the summer could bring lower case numbers anyway - allowing some breathing space. (8/9)
But the potential for yet another dual approach is most definitely there. (9/9)
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