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THREAD: Brief but critical talk on targeted killings in Kabul; already horrific, more intense the past week.
"Who benefits?" Key question @OmSamad & @JJSchroden ask.
Another is "who has capability?"
Answer to both includes Taliban. But also many others.
Can't ignore either. https://twitter.com/JJSchroden/status/1359550296066842624
"Who benefits?" Key question @OmSamad & @JJSchroden ask.
Another is "who has capability?"
Answer to both includes Taliban. But also many others.
Can't ignore either. https://twitter.com/JJSchroden/status/1359550296066842624
Another capacity issue: Afg govt is not capable of preventing open violence in Kabul.
If Taliban (& other terror groups) were the only bad actors, might be different. But Kabul is also plagued by a vast criminal network, much of it politically protected. https://twitter.com/and_huh_what/status/1352327521275142148?s=20
If Taliban (& other terror groups) were the only bad actors, might be different. But Kabul is also plagued by a vast criminal network, much of it politically protected. https://twitter.com/and_huh_what/status/1352327521275142148?s=20
Over years (a) intent & (b) capacity of Kabul criminal orgs have risen steadily. They act with impunity.
Kabul's security will never improve as long as insurgents AND criminals have space to move & operate in a chaotic metropolis.
Only solutions are... https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/context-culture/kabuls-expanding-crime-scene-part-1-the-roots-of-todays-underworld/
Kabul's security will never improve as long as insurgents AND criminals have space to move & operate in a chaotic metropolis.
Only solutions are... https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/context-culture/kabuls-expanding-crime-scene-part-1-the-roots-of-todays-underworld/
1) Radically increase govt capacity to police its capital.
FVP Saleh was appointed to address Kabul's violence last year, maybe highest-profile attempt to ever do so.
17 bombs have gone off since Saturday.
Chances of this are very low. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/afghanistan-kabul-crime-saleh/2020/11/03/590dde6a-156c-11eb-a258-614acf2b906d_story.html
FVP Saleh was appointed to address Kabul's violence last year, maybe highest-profile attempt to ever do so.
17 bombs have gone off since Saturday.
Chances of this are very low. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/afghanistan-kabul-crime-saleh/2020/11/03/590dde6a-156c-11eb-a258-614acf2b906d_story.html
2) Eliminate criminal elements that have a vice-grip on Kabul, which would require confronting their political protection head-on.
Then, all violence can be blamed on & traced back to insurgent networks. Police can focus.
But this is even less likely. https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/economy-development-environment/kabuls-expanding-crime-scene-part-2-criminal-activities-and-the-police-response/
Then, all violence can be blamed on & traced back to insurgent networks. Police can focus.
But this is even less likely. https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/economy-development-environment/kabuls-expanding-crime-scene-part-2-criminal-activities-and-the-police-response/
3) Establish some way to oblige Taliban: to not only discontinue use of violence in Kabul, but also be responsible for & hunt down any rogue members or affiliates who do.
Is this realistic? Still unlikely, to be sure.
Is this realistic? Still unlikely, to be sure.
Perhaps Taliban may only change course when the group's leadership feels (at least partly/jointly) responsible for Kabul security. Of course, perhaps not even then.
But 20 years of Western support has not ended crime in Kabul; only sharpened the edge of tactical response teams.
But 20 years of Western support has not ended crime in Kabul; only sharpened the edge of tactical response teams.
Terrible reality is: even if US govt reversed course & announced another 10 years of unflinching support for the Afghan state, it has no tool in its toolkit to swiftly stop the current tragic madness in Kabul.
And has had little success in supporting improvements in this regard.
And has had little success in supporting improvements in this regard.
The analogy that comes to mind is of a catastrophe that strikes as you are driving through a tunnel, midway.
Initiation of the peace process motivated the campaign of violence wransacking Kabul. But a collapse of the process won't get Afghans out of the tunnel.
Initiation of the peace process motivated the campaign of violence wransacking Kabul. But a collapse of the process won't get Afghans out of the tunnel.
