Read on Twitter
1/ In my email newsletter yesterday, and online for everyone at @MPRnews this morning, I tackled the big question over Minnesota’s relatively slow #COVID19 vaccination pace: what’s to blame? To spoil this thread: I think it’s mostly low supply.
Article: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2021/02/10/analysis-whats-to-blame-for-minnesotas-slow-vaccination-pace
Article: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2021/02/10/analysis-whats-to-blame-for-minnesotas-slow-vaccination-pace
2/ First, to establish the problem: Minnesota’s vaccination rate has been trending downward for more than a week, and is currently on a pace to be able to give 2 doses to 80% of MN adults by November — rather later than most would want!
3/ In the abstract, there are three possible explanations for this:
1) Low *demand* for vaccines
2) Bad *distribution* of vaccines
3) Low *supply* of vaccines
I’ll take these all in turn.
Subscribe to my #COVID19 newsletter: http://cloud.connect.mpr.org/mprnews_covid
1) Low *demand* for vaccines
2) Bad *distribution* of vaccines
3) Low *supply* of vaccines
I’ll take these all in turn.
Subscribe to my #COVID19 newsletter: http://cloud.connect.mpr.org/mprnews_covid
4/ Considering low demand, we know that SOME people are hesitant about getting #COVID19 vaccine. National surveys by @KFF found ~13% of Americans never want to get the shot. Lots more have some doubts.
But these doubts are shrinking, just from December to January.
But these doubts are shrinking, just from December to January.
5/ @KFF’s survey ( https://www.kff.org/report-section/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-january-2021-vaccine-hesitancy/) found the demographic group with the least vaccine hesitancy was seniors. Health workers had below-average hesitancy; hesitancy was higher in rural areas than urban areas.
6/ With rural Americans more skeptical of the vaccine, if lack of demand was a major factor behind slow vaccination rates in MN, we might expect to see higher vaccination rates in the Twin Cities than Greater Minnesota. But the opposite is true, so far:
7/ Second, if the low vaccination rate is primarily driven by low demand, OR by bad distribution, we’d expect to see a big stockpile of doses that Minnesota had received, but hadn’t yet administered, either because of bureaucratic bungling, or trouble finding takers.
8/ So how many unused doses does Minnesota have mouldering away in freezers?
The simplest answer to this is to compare doses received to doses given. In MN, that’s 975K received and 732K administered, about 75%, which would SEEM to suggest 243K sitting around.
But hold up.
The simplest answer to this is to compare doses received to doses given. In MN, that’s 975K received and 732K administered, about 75%, which would SEEM to suggest 243K sitting around.
But hold up.
9/ For one thing, note in this chart that Minnesota is one of the better states at administering its dose supply — behind leaders like UT and ND, but well above average.
Second, some of these doses might be in transit, or reserved for 2nd doses.
Second, some of these doses might be in transit, or reserved for 2nd doses.
10/ Minnesota has set a goal that each provider should administer 90% of their vaccines within 3 days of receipt, and 100% within 7 days.
Performance varies here — @MayoClinic is giving 100% within 3 days, a few providers are 50% or below.
The statewide figure: 87% in 3 days.
Performance varies here — @MayoClinic is giving 100% within 3 days, a few providers are 50% or below.
The statewide figure: 87% in 3 days.
11/ This metric makes it clear that Minnesota certainly USED to have a huge distribution problem, but that things have gotten much better. Two weeks ago, MN was averaging just 70% of doses within 3 days; now that’s up to nearly 90%.
12/ This same metric lets us calculate the number of doses that have been shipped & are eligible to be given (not being held back for 2nd doses, which is another question).
Two weeks ago there were more than 75K doses on the shelf. Now that’s down to about 25K.
Two weeks ago there were more than 75K doses on the shelf. Now that’s down to about 25K.
13/ But ultimately for me, the most important stat that shows the ultimate issue is a supply issue rather than demand or distribution is this one — Minnesota has been distributing doses faster than it’s been receiving them for more than a week now.
14/ Now, a few concluding analyses:
First, the fact that MN has been outpacing supply recently suggests that we may have further to fall before we rise again. (Though today’s data shows a minor uptick — more on that in another thread shortly.)
First, the fact that MN has been outpacing supply recently suggests that we may have further to fall before we rise again. (Though today’s data shows a minor uptick — more on that in another thread shortly.)
15/ Second, saying that distribution doesn’t appear to be the big issue any more isn’t to take away from the fact that MN has had distributional issues in recent weeks, or that the current system could be better — without even getting to the question of ease of use for people.
16/ Finally, while supply may be the lion’s share of the problem, that’s also the one issue MN doesn’t have much control over! So unsurprisingly there’s lots of political fighting over distribution — it may be a minor factor, but it’s the only lever MN can pull!
17/17 Subscribe to my @MPRnews #COVID19 newsletter here for more analyses like this, a few times per week: https://cloud.connect.mpr.org/mprnews_covid
