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The CCC's numbers are based around a least cost pathway for the UK BUT IMO, a heat pumpification strategy (plus energy efficiency) for the UK also makes sense for many reasons (thread). https://twitter.com/ELPinchbeck/status/1359495305025249281
Geography (1). Warmish summers and relatively warm winters allow good performance, even in winter. I've been wondering if the UK is in the heat pump Goldilocks zone for some time. https://twitter.com/heatpolicyrich/status/1358789450466291721?s=20
Geography (2). The UK has a globally significant wind resource, the wind map in this FT report is a thing of beauty. Use the wind to power the heat pumps!: https://www.ft.com/content/a37d0ddf-8fb1-4b47-9fba-7ebde29fc510
You could in theory of course use that wind to produce hydrogen (subject to some wild upscaling of tech) but that would be hugely inefficient and therefore costly: http://www.csrf.ac.uk/2020/09/hydrogen-for-heating
Going wild for heat pumps would support least cost decarb. and also reduce energy import requirements. I'm no protectionist but, if you were after a strategic economic stimulus, this has got win-win written all over it.
The fact that heat pumps extract the majority of heat from the environment reduces wider system impacts, less resources (i.e. primary materials) are therefore needed which has significant non-carbon environmental value. I love this sankey: https://twitter.com/heatpolicyrich/status/1288804039120084995?s=20
Heat pumps can be deployed organically using existing market structures, no geographical conversion is needed for ones on single buildings. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421520302408 Policy makers like this element.
The deployment of heat pumps delivers immediate carbon benefits based on the UK's current grid mix. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101735
