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You're in a room full of climate scientists. You ask how many think we'll exceed 2C of global warming within decades. You ask if it's possible the carbon 'budget' for 2C has already nearly been used up. You ask whether humans can adapt to all the impacts of well over 2C..
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1a/
Most scientists expect 2.5 to 6C of warming within decades. These are truly horrific levels of warming happening with virtually unprecedented speed in the history of animal life on Earth.
Guardian policy? Ignore this reality virtually everyday.
2009: http://web.archive.org/web/20210204181139/https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2009/apr/14/global-warming-target-2c
Most scientists expect 2.5 to 6C of warming within decades. These are truly horrific levels of warming happening with virtually unprecedented speed in the history of animal life on Earth.
Guardian policy? Ignore this reality virtually everyday.
2009: http://web.archive.org/web/20210204181139/https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2009/apr/14/global-warming-target-2c
1b/
New computer climate models suggest profoundly destructive 2C by around 2043 (give or take 9 years).
These models can't yet factor in all dangerous feedbacks properly so with emissions still rising we can't be sure 2C won't hit as early as 2029-2033. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-might-the-world-exceed-1-5c-and-2c-of-global-warming/amp
New computer climate models suggest profoundly destructive 2C by around 2043 (give or take 9 years).
These models can't yet factor in all dangerous feedbacks properly so with emissions still rising we can't be sure 2C won't hit as early as 2029-2033. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-might-the-world-exceed-1-5c-and-2c-of-global-warming/amp
1c/
'A global rise in temperature of just 2C would be enough to threaten life as we know it. But leading climate scientists think even this universally agreed target will be missed'
The Guardian deliberately ignores this in virtually all reporting.
2017
http://web.archive.org/web/20190813023346/https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/19/cat-in-hells-chance-why-losing-battle-keep-global-warming-2c-climate-change
'A global rise in temperature of just 2C would be enough to threaten life as we know it. But leading climate scientists think even this universally agreed target will be missed'
The Guardian deliberately ignores this in virtually all reporting.
2017
http://web.archive.org/web/20190813023346/https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/19/cat-in-hells-chance-why-losing-battle-keep-global-warming-2c-climate-change
2/
The remaining carbon 'budget' for 1.75°C may be negative (ie, too late).
The range is wide but we may be close to using up the 2°C budget.
We should be taking emergency to change systems, not waffling about how much more destruction is acceptable. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00064-9
The remaining carbon 'budget' for 1.75°C may be negative (ie, too late).
The range is wide but we may be close to using up the 2°C budget.
We should be taking emergency to change systems, not waffling about how much more destruction is acceptable. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00064-9
3a/
'We have already observed impacts of climate change on agriculture.
We have assessed the amount of climate change we can adapt to.
** There’s a lot we can’t adapt to even at 2C. **
At 4C the impacts are very high and we cannot adapt to them.' https://theconversation.com/ipcc-expert-wrap-costs-of-climate-change-mounting-time-to-adapt-24939
'We have already observed impacts of climate change on agriculture.
We have assessed the amount of climate change we can adapt to.
** There’s a lot we can’t adapt to even at 2C. **
At 4C the impacts are very high and we cannot adapt to them.' https://theconversation.com/ipcc-expert-wrap-costs-of-climate-change-mounting-time-to-adapt-24939
3b.
'We’ve left it too late to reduce emissions enough to avoid all of the impacts of climate change, but we could still avoid a large proportion of them by reducing emissions soon, and fast.' (from March 2014
)
Rachel Warren, University of East Anglia https://theconversation.com/ipcc-expert-wrap-costs-of-climate-change-mounting-time-to-adapt-24939
'We’ve left it too late to reduce emissions enough to avoid all of the impacts of climate change, but we could still avoid a large proportion of them by reducing emissions soon, and fast.' (from March 2014
)Rachel Warren, University of East Anglia https://theconversation.com/ipcc-expert-wrap-costs-of-climate-change-mounting-time-to-adapt-24939
3c/
It was well understood before the Paris Agreement that 2C wouldn't be safe for Earth's species, humanity included. https://theconversation.com/a-matter-of-degrees-why-2c-warming-is-officially-unsafe-42308
It was well understood before the Paris Agreement that 2C wouldn't be safe for Earth's species, humanity included. https://theconversation.com/a-matter-of-degrees-why-2c-warming-is-officially-unsafe-42308
Reports claiming that 2°C is achievable almost always assume that geoengineering will work.
But many scientists are extremely sceptical about the idea that sucking vast quantities of CO2 out of the atmosphere can be done on the stupendous scale required. https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn28430-the-climate-fact-no-one-will-admit-2-c-warming-is-inevitable/
But many scientists are extremely sceptical about the idea that sucking vast quantities of CO2 out of the atmosphere can be done on the stupendous scale required. https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn28430-the-climate-fact-no-one-will-admit-2-c-warming-is-inevitable/
2C is a death sentence for 100s of millions of people.
At 3-5C, billions could/would die (2C may trigger further unstoppable 'Hothouse' warming).
But corporate media won't explain that the corporate world is committing the most horrifying of crimes. https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/opinion/climate-change-paris-agreement-uganda-b1769562.html
At 3-5C, billions could/would die (2C may trigger further unstoppable 'Hothouse' warming).
But corporate media won't explain that the corporate world is committing the most horrifying of crimes. https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/opinion/climate-change-paris-agreement-uganda-b1769562.html
