If we set aside political & economic assumptions for one moment & accept that the military behaves like a military, then it's easier to see how the seizure of power was the culmination of a possibly unintended escalation spiral.

Small clashes become big battles all the time. 1/8

The military has a history of asking for concessions via negotiation, being denied, being surprised by being denied, and then leaving itself with no option but force. It then will often use force to extract concessions beyond the original demand. 2/

Good example is the 2019 TNLA-led offensive in Shan. Military asked for TNLA withdrawal from areas outside Palaung SAZ. TNLA denied. So the military quietly moved to dislodge some small TNLA outposts ahead of next negotiation round to prevent TNLA from claiming more territory 3/

The plan woefully backfired when the TNLA retaliated with a massive offensive across Shan. After repelling the offensive the military went into the Palaung SAZ to target TNLA outposts there, even though it had previously told the group that it could remain inside the SAZ 4/

See the logic: A wanted demand is made -> demand denied -> warnings to comply given -> non-compliance -> massive retaliation.

This is a military mindset. The longer term vision is an aim for establishing credible deterrence to ensure future demands are met. 5/

The Reuters reporting from @poppymcp lays out a series of events that fit this pattern. The military wanted the NLD to take its demands serious. The NLD practically ignored and did not engage in meaningful dialogue. This was unacceptable for the military. 6/

Theory that points toward economic or political gain needs to establish how this in fact advances the military's interests in those realms. In fact, the opposite appears true. 7/

The last point I will stress is that the military is able to continue acting in this narrow-minded way because it holds tremendous power -- enough that it can manage to live with any self-inflicted damage. But raw power and craftsmanship should not be conflated. End/