Replies to this thread just confirm how crucial it is to highlight the policies that are actually driving investment, energy and emissions in China. The news I tweeted about 2030 renewable power consumption quotas yesterday is more consequential on its own than this whole debate. https://twitter.com/laurimyllyvirta/status/1359137998202429445

The fate of carbon trading in China matters above all because of the underlying politics - it's one of the few tools that the environmental ministry has to regulate energy sector emissions.

The ministry has to either fix it, go back to drawing board or leave the implementation of CO2 emissions targets to the economic planners. All of these options are possible; I'm not sure which one is the most feasible politically.

My overriding concern is that market-based solutions are a losing proposition in today's China, and proponents of climate action are staking too much on them (carbon trading, electricity reform...)

I just get a feeling that environmental and energy analysts are falling in the same trap that most economic analysts have learned to climb out of a long time ago: look at the magician wave a colored napkin while all the action happens backstage.

So, again, what to watch instead of the handkerchief:
-renewables&nuclear capacity targets
-renewable consumption quotas
-coal capacity and coal consumption control targets
-province 5-year plans
-CO2 peaking action plan
-2035 infra plan
...