There’s been some really tantalizing data coming out in the past few days that the COVID vaccines might in fact do a great job reducing infection & transmission too, and if this holds up it is such a game changer!

I expect that we will finally have an answer to the extremely important question of how much the vaccines reduce transmission soon.

(Incidentally, I’ve been saying we’d learn this in Feb or March since December)

That said, I disagree with a claim I’ve been seeing circulating from many people that scientists & public health experts should have been always messaging that vaccines reduce transmission, because that message would encourage vaccine uptake.

Vaccine hesitancy is not actually TODAY’s biggest vaccination challenge. So many many people want to be vaccinated and can’t yet, due to rollout or distribution issues.

Personally, I think it was (and still is) right for public health experts to take the more cautious messaging route on COVID issues until we have actual evidence.

Saying “we dont know how much transmission protection there is yet, but expect to have an answer soon” is not the same message as “there’s no transmission protection”, even if it is a bit more complicated and even if some people hear the first & conclude the second.

If the vaccines reduce transmission by a substantial amount, we will be able resume normal life much faster. We will be able to start traveling & visiting family and friends sooner. IF.

If the vaccines hadn’t (or don’t) turn out to reduce transmission by very much (and despite what some people say, that was always a possibility), then we would have to keep up wide-spread precautions for so much longer.

Keeping precautions until we find out how safe it is to relax them is a MUCH safer population health strategy than relaxing precautions early in the hopes that we’ll get lucky and it was safe all along.

Yes, this requires changing the message when we have solid data. Yes, that is a bit harder for some people. Yes, we have to put more effort in.

But IMO being truthful & explaining why & how the message has changed is the responsible way to do public health messaging.

The early data looks really good and I am getting very VERY hopeful of a big reduction in transmission.

Once we have an answer to the transmission question, no matter what that answer is, I’m going to be yelling it from the rooftops.

But not before. Not before.