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This conversation is long, long overdue. I’d question the emphasis on reinforcing deterrence—NK hasn’t invaded the South since 1950 and shows few signs of repeating that error soon—but a pragmatic approach means no longer trying to achieve sweeping goals with limited tools. https://twitter.com/usip/status/1359210959030476803
I’d very much like North Korea to rejoin the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and dismantle its nuclear arsenal. But wishing won’t make it so. There’s a policy built for show around that goal, and then there’s a nameless default policy underlying it. Let’s name it: containment.
To put it another way: for a quarter-century, the US and allies have resolutely refused to accept the idea of living with a nuclear-armed North Korea. The result has been... living with a nuclear-armed North Korea. Heavily sanctioned and ringed with missile defenses, of course.
Those measures, designed to prevent and to penalize NK’s development of nuclear arms, or to deny their benefits, have ended up as de facto measures to wall the place off until something changes.
South Korea, for its own part, has responded to NK nuclear and missile tests with its own growing, highly capable conventional missile force—apparently convincing NK to follow suit. I wrote about this dynamic with Minji Kim: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10736700.2020.1809156
Two can play the arms-race game! Three can play, even.
Even taken together, these tools—sanctions, missile defenses, and conventional precision strike capabilities—haven’t sufficed to get NK to change course on nukes. If anything, this combination has dug them in deeper still.
Now, North Korea is more isolated and more dangerous than before. And it appears they can get more dangerous faster than we can make them more isolated.
There’s plenty of work to do to shape a more pragmatic policy, if the Biden admin is so inclined. And their desire to work with our allies on NK policy is commendable. But if the choice is just to do more of the same, well, don’t expect better outcomes than before. (end)
