We're far enough away from 2020 that we have good estimates of total mortality from @HMDatabase. What do the data tell us? First, in the 25 countries for which we have a complete estimate, mortality increased by about 10%, taking us back to the level of 2008.

Second, there is considerable variability across countries. The hardest-hit country, Spain, saw a nearly 20% increase. The country that fared best was New Zealand, which saw a 5% decrease in mortality, probably because there was virtually no flu in 2020.

Third, the *relative* increase in mortality was about 10% across all age groups except 0-14. Older people have higher mortality to begin with, so the *absolute* increase was highest in the older groups.

What does all this tell us? To me, imposing lockdowns on our entire society was a colossal overreaction. But anyone can agree or disagree---this is not a scientific question, it's an issue of risk tolerance and moral philosophy which we are all equally qualified to address.

Code and data at https://github.com/georgewfraser/covid-mortality