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THREAD: very interesting results from the @ISEAS State of Southeast Asia Survey 2021. A few highlights below- https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/The-State-of-SEA-2021-v2.pdf
Unsurprisingly, Covid-19 and unemployment/economic recession rank at the top of the region's list of challenges, in contrast to the traditional security issues that dominated in last year's survey (e.g. domestic political instability, terrorism, etc.).
Most Southeast Asians approve of their government's response to Covid-19, but disapproval ranks high in the Philippines (53.7 percent) and Indonesia (50.4 percent). No surprise given weak pandemic response. See @SoutheastAsiaDC Covid-19 tracker for details http://cs.is/32AZO2f
Respondents from countries with effective Covid-19 response show high approval, including Vietnam (96.6%), Brunei (93.9%) and Singapore (92.4%). Thailand is the outlier at only 44.3% approval despite strong pandemic response, likely a reflection of domestic political anxieties.
Southeast Asians view Singapore and Vietnam as having provided the best leadership to ASEAN during the pandemic. "None of the above" ranks at third, and Thailand is a distant fourth.
Nearly 45% of Southeast Asians believe China has provided most help to the region for Covid-19. But country-level data show key roles for other partners (e.g., Japan in Myanmar, the EU in Indonesia, etc.).
Notably, Australia barely registers in some countries, despite announcements re: vaccine-related financial assistance to Southeast Asia and the Pacific. https://thediplomat.com/2020/11/australia-announces-new-injection-of-pacific-covid-19-vaccine-aid/
Southeast Asians view China as the predominant economic power in the region - but are increasingly worried about the impact of China's regional economic influence, with 72.3% of respondents "worried" in 2021, a slight increase from 71.9% in 2020.
Political and strategic influence is more contested - and 88.6% of respondents who believe that China is the predominant political power in the region are worried about its influence, up from 85.4% in 2020
When forced to align with one of the two major powers in a binary choice, 61.5% of respondents choose the U.S., up from 53.6% last year. Country-level data show positive swings in Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.
The EU is viewed as the most preferred and trusted "third party" partner for ASEAN. Positive sentiment towards the EU persists even in Malaysia and Indonesia, despite ongoing disputes on palm oil. Japan is a close second, doing particularly well in Myanmar.
Strong levels of affinity for Japan in Myanmar bring to mind recent calls for Tokyo to exert its leverage in responding to the coup. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3120494/myanmar-coup-do-india-and-japan-have-will-or-leverage-exert
More Southeast Asian respondents view China as a revisionist power this year than last (46.3% vs. 38.2%). Large swings in Indonesia and Laos in particular.
Southeast Asians are bullish on U.S. engagement with the region under Biden, with 68.6% expecting engagement to increase. Respondents are also more confident in the U.S. as a strategic partner and provider of regional security now relative to 2020.
As in past surveys, trust in Japan far exceeds that of any other partner. The EU isn't far behind. And the U.S. has seen a huge bump in trust scores since 2020.
All in all - hats off to the @ISEAS team for another fascinating report. And tune in to the report launch today here: https://www.iseas.edu.sg/mec-events/e-launch-and-discussion-of-the-state-of-southeast-asia-2021-survey-report/
