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1/7
On-chain analysis is very much like being a detective.
You piece together numerous bits of evidence to build up a case for market direction and probability.
The more you study the data, the more your thesis becomes grounded in truth, or proven false.
Quick overview
On-chain analysis is very much like being a detective.
You piece together numerous bits of evidence to build up a case for market direction and probability.
The more you study the data, the more your thesis becomes grounded in truth, or proven false.
Quick overview
2/7
Using the @glassnode dashboard tool, you can build your own suite of on-chain tools.
Prevailing narrative: 'whale spawning' as institutions + HNWI's enter w/ $Millions to $Billions. We are talking 100 to 10k $BTC range.
This is my dashboard tracking and observing this trend
Using the @glassnode dashboard tool, you can build your own suite of on-chain tools.
Prevailing narrative: 'whale spawning' as institutions + HNWI's enter w/ $Millions to $Billions. We are talking 100 to 10k $BTC range.
This is my dashboard tracking and observing this trend
3/7
Observations:
100 to 1000+ $BTC wallets are growing with 10's of million $ category seeing a strong uptrend.
10k $BTC wallets are declining, I posit these align with exchange balances given notable outflows.
Price is minting more and more $ Millionaires, which turns heads.
Observations:
100 to 1000+ $BTC wallets are growing with 10's of million $ category seeing a strong uptrend.
10k $BTC wallets are declining, I posit these align with exchange balances given notable outflows.
Price is minting more and more $ Millionaires, which turns heads.
4/7
We can confirm that exchange balances are indeed continuing in withdrawal mode in the hundreds of thousands of $BTC range.
Miners are only applying sell pressure in the tens of thousands $BTC range.
Demand is exceeding natural NEW supply, this much is certain.
We can confirm that exchange balances are indeed continuing in withdrawal mode in the hundreds of thousands of $BTC range.
Miners are only applying sell pressure in the tens of thousands $BTC range.
Demand is exceeding natural NEW supply, this much is certain.
5/7
So who is the sell side in this equation?
Most probable is long term OGs with well aged mature coins, transferring wealth + retiring (nice play!)
I consult Coin Days Destroyed and SOPR. When large profits booked AND many coin days are destroyed, old coins are on the move.
So who is the sell side in this equation?
Most probable is long term OGs with well aged mature coins, transferring wealth + retiring (nice play!)
I consult Coin Days Destroyed and SOPR. When large profits booked AND many coin days are destroyed, old coins are on the move.
6/7
SOPR reset during $29k consolidation meaning coins with high realised profit stopped being spent (OGs sitting tight)
It has only just started to tick back up after the Elon candle, booking some profits again
So far, this is not a run for the exits, very normal behaviour.
SOPR reset during $29k consolidation meaning coins with high realised profit stopped being spent (OGs sitting tight)
It has only just started to tick back up after the Elon candle, booking some profits again
So far, this is not a run for the exits, very normal behaviour.
7/7
Finally let's look at Coin Days Destroyed on a 30DMA.
We are at an elevated level, coincident with the 2013 Bull peaks but well within 2017 range
It is resetting, likely result of consolidation, and it is likely we will see this spike up when OG's recommence taking profits.
Finally let's look at Coin Days Destroyed on a 30DMA.
We are at an elevated level, coincident with the 2013 Bull peaks but well within 2017 range
It is resetting, likely result of consolidation, and it is likely we will see this spike up when OG's recommence taking profits.
