My guide to teams doubling in #DGW24... a thread

Will include a few options from each team that I would target

RTs and likes appreciated

#FPL #FPLCommunity

Man City

(TOT, eve)

• Two tough fixtures for City, in which I expect tight matches, particularly the first

• Because of this, I don't see much 'rotation' here, and I expect key players (Ederson, Dias, Cancelo, Rodri, Gundogan, Sterling, B.Silva) to start both games

• I also think Stones is likely to start both games, as is Foden, due to his form and versatility

• As a Spurs fan, I predict (unbiasedly) that we will give them a very tough game, I expect us to score and limit them to less than 2.5 goals...

• In our last 3 games, we have won twice and drawn once, keeping two clean sheets

• Therefore, I expect it to be a relatively low-scoring game, so not great for attackers and I really do fancy us to get a goal

• Ideally, I would try to get 2 attackers and a defender...

.. as I have said, I think we will score

• I think City will win the Everton game and score at least a couple of goals; Everton are 6th for big chances conceded in the last 4 matches, and shipped 3 to United

• Everton are ranked pretty averagely for their attacking threat in the last few - although we did see them score 3 vs United. BUT City are by far the best defensive side atm

• I think a City clean sheet looks pretty likely here, but once again, I'd rather bet on attackers.

More specifically now...

• As I said before, I think the optimum strategy is 2 x mids and 1 x defender

• The three mids I like are Foden, Sterling & Gundo...

• The latter 2 will > 95% start both games, although their numbers vs Foden are similar to Foden when he plays

• Sterling would be my first choice if price is no issue, his mins/chance is the best, as is his touches in the 18 yard box & no. of big chances

• Gundo would be my 2nd choice because of nailedness and form, could've had a hat-trick vs Liverpool...

.. and is = to Sterling for big chances in last 4

• That being said, his mins/chance is worst of the 3 assets quite significantly and his mins/goal attempt in box is nearly 3 times as bad (surprisingly)

• I also highly doubt he takes the penalties now...

• Onto Foden, the more interesting pick...

• Best mins/chance created of the three players, also equal to Sterling for mins/goal attempt in box & mins/chance

• Foden's goal conversion has been SIX times worse than Gundo's in the last 4 games....

... this highlights to me that either Gundo is over achieving or Foden is underachieving, but probably both.

• That being said, I still prefer Gundo due to his reliability and nailedness, BUT if Foden is rested vs Swansea I think he will start both games

• In conclusion, of the 3 mids, Sterling would be my first choice.

• The other one I would pick would depend on the Swansea line up... (this only affects Foden)

• On a WC, I would be going Sterling, Foden/Gundo & a defender

• Foden/Gundo depends on Swansea, I would go Gundo if Foden starts

• If you are Foden owner, I would keep, even if he starts vs Swansea

• Defender wise, I would rank them:

Dias
Cancelo
Stones

• I wouldn't switch between any of them (unless on WC)

• I would be tempted to get rid of the double/triple up in order to get Sterling if you don't own.

• Stones & Dias are = for attempts from set pieces in the last 6, although of these attempts, Stones has had the bigger ones

• Dias in last 6 xGI is 0.93 to Stones' 0.77

• Cancelo xGI is only 0.14 higher than Dias in the last 6, but...

has had 8 more goal attempts in this time, and has created 6 more chances.

• Cancelo's attempts tend to be fairly low - in terms of xG, so imo his goal threat is lower than the community rank him

• I also don't expect Cancelo to get as far forward against us as he usually does to prevent counter attacks. We saw this vs Liverpool

• So Dias would definitely be my go-to defensive option

• Everton are also 2nd for set piece attempts conceded across the last 4

• So in conclusion, my go to option is Dias because he will almost certainly start both and his goal threat is arguably the best, given the opposition.

• But like I said before, I wouldn't be switching around defenders, and I think the three I mentioned will start both

• Before I move away from city, I will give a quick mention to Ederson.

• He is 100% nailed

• Pep said he could be on pens - insane. BUT he has said that in the past and the chance of a penalty is still low

• I doubt he'll make > 3 saves vs us, and probably Everton too

Burnley

(cry, FUL)

• Two great fixtures, particularly defensively

• Palace without Zaha, he missed 19 games since 17/18, Palace have failed to score in 15, losing 17

• Fulham have scored the fewest goals of any team in their last 6 PL games (3)

• Defensively, I think 1 defender is essential. 2+ looks a great bet also

• Pope is a great option, he has the most bonus of any defensive asset in the a game

• He also has made the second most saves and is second of all GKs this season

• 2 clean sheets is possible

• That all being said, (Martinez owners take note) I don't think he is a huge upgrade on Martinez, given Villa's defensive form and favourable fixture

• It probably is worth a free transfer though, remember that Pope has West Brom in GW25, when Martinez has GW26

• Also note: Martinez is due at least a couple of DGWs and you may have value in him so struggle to get him back

• I would transfer out your other goalkeeper, rather than Martinez, I don't think transferring out Martinez is worth it.

• Elsewhere, I like Tarkowski, Mee, Lowton, Gudmundsson & Wood (if he is back)

Mee vs Tarkowski...

• Their goal threat is very similar. Since GW8 (when Mee returned), Tarkowski has accumulated 1.91 xGI to Mee's 1.62.

• Mins/BPS = Mee 7.5, Lowton 8.6, Tarkowski 8.8

• Lowton's goal threat is minimum, but is a lot cheaper, I would still go Mee/Tarkowski over him for the upside.

• I slightly favour Tarkowski over Mee because of his historic goal involvement, but luck will come down to who scores more, due to their similar numbers

check out the second part here... https://twitter.com/coysfpl/status/1359222013886427139