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German defence minister AKK and the Inspector General of the Bundeswehr have written a paper about the future of the Bundeswehr. https://twitter.com/gebauerspon/status/1359164566383587342
What does the paper say? Thread
Full paper https://augengeradeaus.net/2021/02/positionspapier-von-akk-und-gi-planung-fuer-die-bundeswehr-der-zukunft/
It certainly starts out very German "We ourselves do not think in terms of power politics and dominance, but others do and act accordingly."
Full paper https://augengeradeaus.net/2021/02/positionspapier-von-akk-und-gi-planung-fuer-die-bundeswehr-der-zukunft/
It certainly starts out very German "We ourselves do not think in terms of power politics and dominance, but others do and act accordingly."
(Yes to the dominance point, but I think I would expect my government and associated ministries to think in terms of power politics. 
)
)
Anyhow. On to the content:
"there are rapidly evolving weapon technologies that make defending national borders, infrastructure and our own armed forces more difficult: drones, killer satellites, hypersonic missiles. We are poorly armed against some of these threats today."
"there are rapidly evolving weapon technologies that make defending national borders, infrastructure and our own armed forces more difficult: drones, killer satellites, hypersonic missiles. We are poorly armed against some of these threats today."
The paper mentions China "a powerful and increasingly visible actor", and note that "the dynamics in the Indo-Pacific point increasingly in the direction of power rivalries and growing conflicts. This also concerns our value partners in the region."
Stronger on Russia: "Russia defines itself as a counterforce to the West. Moscow has intensified its military and political threats and knowingly violated international treaties."
That's pretty clear.
That's pretty clear.
The paper notes several "very concrete threats":
"Assaults on us and our allies, the borders, the airspace, the territorial waters and the data room. Attacks on critical infrastructures, communication channels and our open society."
...
"Assaults on us and our allies, the borders, the airspace, the territorial waters and the data room. Attacks on critical infrastructures, communication channels and our open society."
...
"Open and covert attacks on the cohesion of our alliances and value partnerships."
"The restriction of our political freedom of action. We mustn't be blackmailed."
...
"The restriction of our political freedom of action. We mustn't be blackmailed."
...
"The cutting off and blocking of international trade routes* and supply chains on which our globally generated wealth and our welfare state depend."
*A German President once stepped down from office because he had suggested the Bundeswehr might be used to protect trade routes.
*A German President once stepped down from office because he had suggested the Bundeswehr might be used to protect trade routes.
The paper argues that "Now, in the spring of 2021, is the ideal time to deepen the [German] debate about our security, and take decisions."
Honestly, any time is fine for that so yey, let's do it!
Plug: https://warontherocks.com/2019/02/it-is-time-for-germans-to-talk-about-sicherheitspolitik/
Honestly, any time is fine for that so yey, let's do it!
Plug: https://warontherocks.com/2019/02/it-is-time-for-germans-to-talk-about-sicherheitspolitik/
Ok, great:
"We want to answer the ambition Germany has to muster in security policy ... We want to explain why this arises from our role as a firmly integrated alliance partner and also directly from our own German security interests."
"We want to answer the ambition Germany has to muster in security policy ... We want to explain why this arises from our role as a firmly integrated alliance partner and also directly from our own German security interests."
This is good and clear:
"Due to its geographical location and its economic strength, Germany has a special duty to ensure Europe's security. Our country must make a contribution to security and peace commensurate with its location and capabilities - also in the military field."
"Due to its geographical location and its economic strength, Germany has a special duty to ensure Europe's security. Our country must make a contribution to security and peace commensurate with its location and capabilities - also in the military field."
"Germany is responsible for securing its own territory as well as for the equally important task of defending the alliance. For both, credible military deterrence and defense capabilities in all dimensions - land, air, sea, space and cyber - are essential.
In alliance defense, our allies want and must be able to rely on us for their security."
I like all these points! And yes, you might say that's not exactly new - but it's good to see spelled out like this!
I like all these points! And yes, you might say that's not exactly new - but it's good to see spelled out like this!
Same with this!
"A broad military profile is not a luxury but a strategic necessity. There can be no viable Europe without a Bundeswehr that can be deployed in a variety of ways."
"A broad military profile is not a luxury but a strategic necessity. There can be no viable Europe without a Bundeswehr that can be deployed in a variety of ways."
The paper further argues that Germany has to replenish existing skills, "some of which have been significantly weakened by the austerity measures in the past"- and it needs to keep up with the rapid pace of technological development.
AKK and Zorn say that "the Bundeswehr continues to be underfunded despite significant increases in the defense budget in recent years" and argue for a continued increase of the defence budget.
Concrete proposals in the paper: the development of the (existing) Federal Security Council into a National Security Council.
For the German speakers: we discuss this idea in @Sicherheitspod (from min 26 https://sicherheitspod.de/2019/11/02/sicherheitshalber-der-podcast-folge-19-wer-macht-deutsche-sicherheitspolitik-und-afrika/ -
For the German speakers: we discuss this idea in @Sicherheitspod (from min 26 https://sicherheitspod.de/2019/11/02/sicherheitshalber-der-podcast-folge-19-wer-macht-deutsche-sicherheitspolitik-und-afrika/ -
Another proposal: a security week in the German Bundestag, with an annual report by the ministries involved on the threat and security situation.
I like!
I like!
The paper ends with an announcement of future plans:
. Comprehensive assessment of the topic of ground-based air defense in March,
. end of Q1 procurement template for the #Eurodrone for parliament,
. Q2 decision on heavy transport helicopter procurement.
. Comprehensive assessment of the topic of ground-based air defense in March,
. end of Q1 procurement template for the #Eurodrone for parliament,
. Q2 decision on heavy transport helicopter procurement.
. April 2021: publications of the basics for modern and contemporary homeland security.
. May: publication of "key points for the Bundeswehr of the future" including specific proposals for the further development of the armed forces.
. May: publication of "key points for the Bundeswehr of the future" including specific proposals for the further development of the armed forces.
If you're still with me, congratulations, you've made it to the end!
I think this paper is actually pretty helpful! It doesn't answer all questions, but it is rather clear on some important points that are worth spelling out to Germans.
I think this paper is actually pretty helpful! It doesn't answer all questions, but it is rather clear on some important points that are worth spelling out to Germans.
