So on the Bitcoin halving, since Pomp is tweeting about me again...

I was playing poker in January 2020 with @sethginns at the @TheBlock__ HQ with a few others and I was asked what test I'd apply to gauge whether the in fact the halving was priced in or not. /1

And my answer was, if in the period after May, whether we'd see a Bitcoin-specific rally or whether we'd see a crypto rally. Since the halving is a Bitcoin-specific event, it shouldn't benefit other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum. /2

Anyway, here's the chart of Ethereum vs. Bitcoin since May 11 (date of the last halving). As you can see ETH (which I consider to be a Memecoin) has outperformed Bitcoin substantially.

As such, there's no reason to think that the recent rally in Bitcoin is about anything distinct to the Bitcoin issuance schedule, as opposed to a broader rally in crypto for macro, exogenous reasons (inflation narratives, institutional acceptance, etc whatever)

In the end, very hard to gauge alternate scenarios. But to me, that was the test I laid out in January. And so nothing in the last year has caused me to rethink the view. There you go.