Analytically comparing Ollie Watkins and Patrick Bamford. A Thread.

Firstly, why am I comparing Bamford and Watkins? As @gunnerblog brilliantly portrayed in his piece for @TheAthleticUK, Arsenal need a new striker. If the club is indeed looking to recruit a no. 9 this Summer, these guys should be at the top of the list. https://theathletic.com/2371611/2021/02/07/what-does-mikel-arteta-want-from-a-centre-forward/?source=user_shared_article

As James illustrated in his piece, not one of Aubameyang, Lacazette or Nketiah perfectly fits the bill for what Mikel Arteta wants from his centre-forward. Both Bamford and Watkins certainly would. But who would be the better option for Arsenal out of the two?

It would be helpful first to outline exactly what Mikel Arteta would like from his central striker. Three crucial attributes spring to mind. The ability to drop deep and link up play; relentless pressing capabilities; and importantly, an aerial threat.

To summarise, Arteta would like a complete centre-forward. As the graphic courtesy of Understat indicates below, that is indeed what Ollie Watkins and Patrick Bamford are.

As for their goalscoring capabilities, both players must be praised. Arguably against the odds, both Watkins and Bamford have adapted to the Premier League seamlessly. Watkins has scored just under every other game; Bamford has averaged over half a goal a game.

It appears there is nothing fluky about their goal tallies either. Watkins is performing at a rate of 0.54 xG/90 and is thus slightly underperforming with regard to actual goals scored. Meanwhile, Bamford’s goals/90 record of 0.58 completely matches his xG/90. They score goals.

Something that will please Arsenal fans is that both players have also scored 3 headers this season. Due to the crossing capabilities of the likes of Kieran Tierney and Bukayo Saka, Arsenal have turned into something of a crossing machine under Arteta.

Unfortunately, none of Arsenal’s current strikers consistently score headers. With these factors taken into account, it’d be wise to bring in a striker who poses an aerial threat. Bamford and Watkins do, especially Watkins who is also a regular target of Emi Martinez’ goal kicks.

As for their pressing, both are leaders in that regard in the Premier League this season. Both Dean Smith and Marcelo Bielsa demand significant off the ball work from their strikers and Watkins and Bamford emphatically satisfy their respective managers desires.

It is vivid that Bamford and Watkins are currently operating at very similar levels. They’re both potent goal scorers, pose respectable aerial threat and excel in the field of pressing. But what about their ability to link-up play up top?

Simply, they’re both very impressive in that respect also. Bamford is the superior creator having registered 5 assists as opposed to Watkins’ 2, while Watkins appears to be better at dropping into the midfield as evidenced by his 0.95 progressive passes/90 next to Bamford’s 0.63.

Overall, the graphic below infers Watkins is the better linkman, suggested by the no. of passes he receives/90. But we must remember this is likely a product of the system he plays in. Bamford is a superb technical player and could likely play the same role just as well.

Of course, I must end this thread by reminding you that Arsenal have not been linked with either player mentioned today. It is obvious that they’d both represent excellent centre-forward signings for #AFC, but there is nothing to suggest the club are actively looking at them.

Personally, my preference out of the pair would be Watkins. The 25-year-old is known to be a Gooner which should never be a deciding factor in the pursuit of a player but it’s always nice. I also feel Smith’s set-up at Villa quite accurately mirrors Arteta’s footballing vision.

[END OF THREAD]

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