Thread by @TheLawyerCraig, Where does the US stand on #Covid19? Not a simple question. I [...]

Where does the US stand on #Covid19? Not a simple question. I tweet Covid data daily, and the trends have been positive for weeks. But I often get asked, “when is this over?” What about #b117? And seasonality? And the vaccines—shouldn’t they change the trajectory?

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Full disclosure: I’m a realist guided by data but with a bias toward optimism. I also don’t give one tiny, insignificant shit about the political ramifications.

The overall takeaway is that we’re looking a hell of a lot better today than in November, December, and early January.

Covid deaths, by and large, will define the pandemic, so it’s easy to rely solely on that metric as a barometer for current success. But it’s a poor real-time bellwether. By now, everyone assessing the data (in good faith) should be aware that reported deaths lag other metrics.

Here is how much the Covid metrics (7-day averages) have changed from recent peaks:

Cases: -55.0% (1/11 peak)

% Pos: -48.9% (1/8 peak)

Tests: -20.9% (1/18 peak)

Hosp: -34.1% (1/12 peak)

ICU: -26.9% (1/14 peak)

Deaths: -13.5% (1/13 peak)

We have begun to see the leading edge of the drop in reported deaths that should accelerate this week and continue through early March at least. But will it continue thereafter? Not an easy answer.

As many have noted, the #b117 variant is starting to stretch its legs in the US.

I’ve seen claims that #b117 is doubling every ~10 days (faster in some states). That’s fast. When US cases were aflame this fall, I think we saw a doubling every 17 days at the fastest. And the summer wave saw as rapid as 15 days. Things can snowball quickly at those rates.

But the viral breeding ground shouldn’t be the same in Mar/Apr as it was in Nov/Dec. We’re dealing with an entirely different population in terms of potential immunity. Different potential seasonal effects (most medical experts said the fall would look something like it did).

Of course, with variants, we’re dealing with differences as well. But unless I see data that neither vaccines nor prior Covid positive has *any* effect on transmission (I know we’ll have anecdotes and even data about reduced effects), I’d expect Mar–May to be better than Nov–Jan.

I think masks and distancing are important (distancing even more than masks). I want to see sensible mitigation, and I’ve always thought private enterprise making decisions and common-sense governmental requests—not edicts—likely yields better results.

But politicians, media, and experts are notoriously horrendous at considering the second/third/fourth-order effects of decisions. Or at least at considering them nearly as much as a politicians’ pronounced intent or the immediate effects of a particular decision.

I believe requests for people to jog or walk their damn dogs outside masked up has done more harm than good. It’s like people who ask friends to show at the restaurant 30 minutes early because they’re usually 30 minutes late. They catch on, adjust, and doubt you next time.

Even well-meaning governmental officials say or order boneheaded stuff because they want to be seen as *doing something*, and it’s frustrating. These mistakes have cost us quite a bit, I believe—more than many experts, politicians, or media will ever admit (except to themselves).

By mid-March, I imagine we’ll have ~100M vaccine shots in arms. We’ll have a very high percentage of seniors who have at least one shot. We’ll have a room temp single-shot vaccine joining the mix. And we’ll have a population that’s been more infected.

Again, I’m optimistic.

We also need to stop saying that little will change for a long time even after we effectively bring cases down to a negligible number and the population reaches what we would normally call herd immunity. Not only is that demoralizing, but it strikes me as absurd.

It’s also absurd to not take any lessons away from this for future flu seasons, etc. WFH while sick/symptomatic (if able), masked if you’re riding the train/bus sneezing all over every damn body, better air movement in buildings.

Why not strive for a more hygienic/aware society?

Takeaways:

Things are looking up

Variants could throw a wrench in, and soon

Mar-May dwarfing Nov-Jan strikes me as less likely than others think

States: keep perfecting vaccine logistics so ready when deliveries increase

Be safe just because

This will end

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