Read on Twitter
The UK is taking action against new variants. Closing borders. Surging testing. And yet the impression from last night’s presser was that the South African variant wasn’t the most pressing concern.
So how do we square that circle? Quick THREAD after chats with scientists
(1/?)
So how do we square that circle? Quick THREAD after chats with scientists
(1/?)
Last night, JVT said that the South African variant did not have a “distinct transmissibility advantage” over the Kent variant and so was unlikely to become dominant “in the next few months”.
That last bit is important – we’ll come back to it.
(2/?)
That last bit is important – we’ll come back to it.
(2/?)
The fact is the data to support that assertion is patchy.
But the UK variant is becoming dominant in various parts of the world whilst the South African variant is still quite localised. Certainly in this country it is much more prevalent.
That works to our advantage.
(3/?)
But the UK variant is becoming dominant in various parts of the world whilst the South African variant is still quite localised. Certainly in this country it is much more prevalent.
That works to our advantage.
(3/?)
That is the clear message that JVT wanted to get across. The vaccines are still effective *for the situation we now face.*
In some ways, the Kent variant is helping us. By remaining dominant, it is buying us time to tweak the vaccines to combat resistant strains.
(4/?)
In some ways, the Kent variant is helping us. By remaining dominant, it is buying us time to tweak the vaccines to combat resistant strains.
(4/?)
Here comes the but...
BUT it only buys us time. And that’s where I think there may be a bit of reassurance messaging going on, because they don’t want to undermine confidence in the vaccines.
That’s understandable. Vaccines still work. It’s vital that people still get them.
BUT it only buys us time. And that’s where I think there may be a bit of reassurance messaging going on, because they don’t want to undermine confidence in the vaccines.
That’s understandable. Vaccines still work. It’s vital that people still get them.
But ultimately, we *should* be concerned about any virus strain that is vaccine resistant.
If we are vaccinating against the UK variant, which isn’t resistant to vaccines, well then soon the variant that is resistant will start to become dominant.
It’s just a matter of time.
If we are vaccinating against the UK variant, which isn’t resistant to vaccines, well then soon the variant that is resistant will start to become dominant.
It’s just a matter of time.
And if the South African variant is still able to circulate amongst vaccinated people, then it may complicate our road map out of lockdown.
That’s why we need to understand ASAP whether the vaccines stop severe disease. The science tells us they should.
But we need to know.
That’s why we need to understand ASAP whether the vaccines stop severe disease. The science tells us they should.
But we need to know.
Because if they do, well then we can think about lifting lockdown without worrying too much about people dying and hospitals being overwhelmed.
But that’s not the end of the matter.
(8/?)
But that’s not the end of the matter.
(8/?)
There is also evidence that the South African variant may actually be able to reinfect people who’ve had earlier versions of the virus.
See below: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/new-variants-raise-worry-about-covid-19-virus-reinfections-n1257044
See below: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/new-variants-raise-worry-about-covid-19-virus-reinfections-n1257044
So ultimately, as Van Tam admitted last night, we may need a booster dose in the autumn to be fully protected.
We have the time to do it, which is good.
But we shouldn’t convince ourselves that it’s nothing to worry about.
(ENDS)
We have the time to do it, which is good.
But we shouldn’t convince ourselves that it’s nothing to worry about.
(ENDS)
