How good is Carson Wentz? I was going to do a deep dive, but seeing as he's about to be traded, it doesn't make much sense. With that said, here are some initial, big picture thoughts on Wentz the QB. /1

Wentz's key stats by year provide fans and detractors plenty of ammunition to support their positions. Think Wentz sucks? Focus on his career averages, with a heavy emphasis on 2020. Think Wentz is a stud? Focus on 2017-19. "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics" /2

I think the more interesting question is why did 2020 happen? Even if you think Wentz stinks (I don't), the drop off is significant -- with only a few comparable examples in NFL history. (More on that in a moment). /3

The most obvious place to start is Wentz. As @JawsCEOQB said on an interview for @InsideBirds, his mechanics stunk: "You have to work on mechanics. And [Carson] was sloppy. If he were here right now I'd say 'you were sloppy with your mechanics." /4

But @JawsCEOQB also had this to say, which I thought was interesting. And remember, this was following the Steelers game. So this was before the offensive line really took a dive. But the comment on perceived pressure, and it's potential impact on a QB, is interesting. /5

Of course, there are plenty of stats that show real pressure affects a QBs play. Per PFF, QB rate plummets 32.7 points when a QB is pressured. INT% jumps 1.4% when pressured. /6

So, 32 point drop in QB rate when pressured. 1.4% jump in INT% when pressured. Look at Wentz's 2020 key stats again, particularly his QB rate and INT%, and how out of line it is with 2017-19. Correlation, for sure. But causation? /7

I couldn't find full season stats on pressure rate. The best I found was through week 6. Wentz ranked 6th. But sack numbers are also relevant. Wentz was on pace to be sacked 4th most in NFL history before he was benched. His QB rate is very similar to other QBs on this list /8

In other words, I think these numbers support what a lot of people have said already: Wentz contributed to his poor play, but so did the shoddy offensive line. A QB cannot be expected to perform well if he's close to setting the NFL record for sacks in a single season. /9

Can Wentz bounce back? I think so. But it's not a forgone conclusion. Lurie referenced QBs regressing in their 5th season. I didn't uniformly see that. But there are examples of HOF QBs struggling between their 4th-7th seasons, including Manning, Big Ben, Favre and Brees.

The most concerning thing here is, if you rank the bad seasons by QB rate, Wentz still ends up 2nd last. Brees bouncing back provides hope. But you might be hanging your hat on an outlier. Again: there is no guarantee Wentz bounces back here.

In the end, I come back to this. If you believe in Wentz's talent, like I do, you probably focus on 2017-19 and assume he will regress to the mean next season. But it's really hard to ignore 2016 and 2020 performance. "Lies, damned lies, and statistics" indeed. /end