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Let’s take a look at some issues that the new @IEA report highlights about emissions. Especially how India’s lack of monitoring and regulations for MSMEs will cost it in the future:
The findings that I am putting here have been stated under a scenario called the ‘Stated Policies Scenario’ (STEPS) in the IEA report. Let’s first understand what does the report mean by it:
It assumes that significant risks to public health are brought under control gradually over the course of 2021, allowing for a steady economic recovery. STEPS incorporates IEA’s assessment of all the policy ambitions and targets legislated for or announced by India.
Under STEPS SO2 emissions fall by 44% b/w 2019 & 2040. This includes a 90% reduction in emissions from the power sector considering a full implementation of India’s Environmental Protection Rules & majority of coal‐fired capacity is fitted with technology to cut SO2 by 2030.
Now here is a catch: the IEA report mentions that neither current nor planned policies adequately monitor and regulate air pollutant emissions from the industry sector, particularly from MSMEs.
“As a result, emissions of SO2 from industrial processes, which are only partially covered by existing or planned policies, increase by more than 80% over the 2019‐40 period, offsetting a quarter of the reductions in the power sector.”
Under STEPS, NOx emissions fall by 15% b/w 2019 & 2040. The replacement of vehicles on the road with BS VI emission standards, and the increase in the number of EVs would lead to a fall in road transport led NOx by 60% to 2040.
Again, the catch: NOx emissions from the industry sector grow by 90% over the same period.
PM 2.5 emissions under STEPS increase by 4% through to 2040. Progress in access to clean cooking & heating techs leads to a 40% cut in PM2.5 from the residential sector but...
PM2.5 emissions from industrial facilities double over the period to 2040, more than offsetting the reductions elsewhere. While some industrial facilities do use PM2.5 air pollution control techs, there is a lack of effective regulation, & many others don't.
In January, @meenaxshikapoor reported how Indian government has weakened environmental protection rules covering 70% of polluting industry categories in a bid to improve the ease of doing business. https://www.indiaspend.com/how-govt-push-for-ease-of-doing-business-is-compromising-environment-regulation/
The story explains how between early 2015 and late 2017, SPCBs, on instructions from the Centre, exempted 146 of 206 classes of polluting industries from routine inspections. Industrial units in these categories can now self-certify their compliance status.
