As requested!

I've tried to systematize some thoughts on how climate fits into the broader US-China relationship, along the lines of the vibrant discussion in the thread below, in a new @sais_isep policy brief
https://sais-isep.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Climate-Hawks-Need-Not-Be-China-Doves.pdf 1/ https://twitter.com/SlaughterAM/status/1357441114324824068

First, we need to abandon the idea that elevating climate necessarily means “concession” to China, essentially a sanitized version of Trump’s “climate is a Chinese hoax.” Climate involves competitive and cooperative dynamics, like the relationship overall. 2/

Second, a smart climate diplomatic strategy needs to be based on the principle of domestic primary. The most important things both the US and China do on climate take place mostly within their own borders, and are mostly driven by domestic politics. 3/

For the US, this means that getting our act together at home is the most important “China policy” on climate (as on economic competition https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-12-03/china-challenge-can-help-america-avert-decline more broadly). 4/

But domestic primacy doesn’t mean diplomacy doesn’t matter. The US (&EU) should engage with China to accelerate decarbonization, and, equally importantly, work with allies and others to shape the incentives Chinese actors face. The latter will certainly involve competition. 5/

Indeed, affecting the pace of China’s decarbonization requires increasing the political capital the leadership spends pushing climate past domestic interests, as well as altering the incentives those interests face. Hard to see how pure cooperation moves the dial on either 6/

Hence, the need for a strategy that mixes cooperative and competitive elements. Third, I try to sketch out what this range might include in a bit more detail, across the full spectrum of interest alignment 7/

Getting the mix right will require constant calibration. In this way, climate is a really good simulacrum of the US-China relationship overall. 8/

Finally, “de-linking” climate does not seem feasible (China has already ruled it out) or desirable (climate can be a way for the US to enhance other aspects of competition with China, like aligning w/ EU on trade). That said, it’s not a bad rhetorical high ground to seize. 9/

I’ve been enjoying all the think-pieces + twitter chat bubbling up on this topic, including from @resplinodell @atjlennon @thomaswright08 @SlaughterAM @ryanl_hass @Mabeytweet @jonasnahm @JeffDColgan @water_futures @greenlawchina @mchorowitz @KateAronoff etc. Keep it coming! 10/