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Having been recently encouraged to "stick to the science", I'd like to write a bit about COVID-19 disinformation, where it comes from, and how it is undermining our public health response.
Disinformation is a form of misinformation. The latter is incorrect information; the former is incorrect information that is propagated with intent to deceive and manipulate. The word is an anglicization of the Russian "dezinformatsiya", which I believe was coined by the KGB
Clear, accurate information is critical to our pandemic response; let's go now to my favorite paper on rank ordering of effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical disease control interventions. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0
What we see is that education and accurate communication with the public are right up there in terms of effectiveness of interventions, with similar effects to gathering restrictions.
Disinformation undermines education and accurate communication, and sets us back.
Disinformation undermines education and accurate communication, and sets us back.
Because, again referencing the Klimek paper above, control of SARS-2 should be a no-brainer. We have abundant evidence on what works. We know how to control these epidemics and many countries (and within Canada, regions) have done so.
We know that there's been a false dichotomy between health and the economy, and that countries that control their epidemics are more prosperous and have less loss of employment.
So: control is achievable and win-win. Why would you fund and push disinformation that harms health and the economy.
Or to gratuitously quote Vampire Weekend: "Why would you lie about something dumb like that?" (Sorry, favorite song and wanted to link)
Or to gratuitously quote Vampire Weekend: "Why would you lie about something dumb like that?" (Sorry, favorite song and wanted to link)
hmm. So mysterious.
Here's a list of possible motivations for pushing false narratives and undermining disease control responses (partial list):
1. You're focussed on short term profits for a sector that will experience short term losses from control interventions...let's say hospitality.
1. You're focussed on short term profits for a sector that will experience short term losses from control interventions...let's say hospitality.
This gets trotted out, but I don't think it's much of a thing. I do think folks in these sectors get pushed to the front by those pushing disinformation, as their plight is very sympathetic. But the level of funding and sophistication of disinformation makes it unlikely that...
...this is being underwritten or promulgated by the guy wh owns your neighborhood pub.
2. Maybe there are financial interests here, and money to be made in the context of poor pandemic control. If you're betting against markets, maybe poor pandemic control is helpful.
2. Maybe there are financial interests here, and money to be made in the context of poor pandemic control. If you're betting against markets, maybe poor pandemic control is helpful.
Maybe you like to buy precious metals and a lousy pandemic response pushes up the value of what you own. Maybe a disease that kills lots of older people decreases pension obligations. It's not hard to imagine perverse incentives here. https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/gold-price-set-to-lose-momentum-beyond-pandemic-after-28-increase-in-2020-60056128
3. Maybe poor pandemic responses by incompetent governments provide a welcome distraction from corrupt agendas, nefarious activities or...just the fact that they're corrupt?
4. Given the sophistication of disinformation, I think it's also possible that there is some strategic game playing going on here at the level of nation-states. A force that disrupts the health systems and economies of your enemies? And which can be played to stoke division?
That's gold. Imagine you're a country that, ahem, has some issues with NATO? Or the Five Eyes intelligence alliance (Canada, US, UK, NZ, Australia). What a great opportunity to mess with your enemies. And we've seen this in the health space before: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6137759/
Anyway, it doesn't have to be just one of these. But be aware, there are reasons to actively encourage a poor pandemic response in Canada and the US.
If you're going to do this, do you get characters that look and talk like Boris Badenov and Natasha Fatale to push the narrative? That seems dumb. Although https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1358902438183501829?s=20
You'd probably want to do this via media companies and trusted voices, like academics at prominent universities. Maybe some of them know what they're doing, probably most don't.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Useful_idiot
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Useful_idiot
Diversity of thought and legitimate disagreement about ideas are part of what make Western democracies so vibrant. So why not do the judo thing and make that asset a liability?
Some good accounts if you want to learn more about this crazy, through-the-looking-glass world include @CT_Bergstrom @20committee @ericgarland @AshaRangappa_ , and for general quackery and pseudoscience recommend the excellent @CaulfieldTim and @McGillOSS
But here's the motivation for this thread...well funded disinformation is actually a component of Ontario's weak pandemic response. One recent example:
A Medical Officer of Health for a medium-sized Canadian city makes a presentation which includes the bizarre assertion that school opening DECREASES COVID-19 transmission in the community. https://twitter.com/smjevnikar/status/1356269674149912577?s=20
Fortunately that's debunked. But given that that's at odds with our understanding of the dynamics of this pandemic, and of communicable diseases in general, where did this MOH get this idea?
It turns out that his slide comes from a facebook page run by a group called "PANDA", Pandemic Data and Analytics.
https://www.facebook.com/PanData19/posts/relating-to-south-african-schools-starting-the-2021-school-year-the-government-i/231084045257830/
https://www.facebook.com/PanData19/posts/relating-to-south-african-schools-starting-the-2021-school-year-the-government-i/231084045257830/
Broken thread alert! Continues here! https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1359131384242196489?s=20
