Thread for Pacific watchers to wake up to! Curious statement from Nauru's President Lionel Aingimea on Micronesia's decision to leave PIF. At times it's almost conciliatory and oddly passive. He says he doesn't blame anyone for events - "it's just how things have developed" 1/

There's also an appeal to unity and a plea for understanding. He says Micronesia wants to "stay united" in the Pacific but didn't receive sufficient respect or understanding from other leaders. They had to "stand in solidarity" when the gentleman's agreement was ignored 2/

Some analysts have speculated Micronesian states are leaving the door ajar to PIF, despite their announcement to leave. That's why they included a ref in the statement to the final decision being left to individual states. Plus the one year timeframe. A window for negotiation? 3/

This statement offers some evidence to back that view. Aingimea says the withdrawal will take a year and stresses the process will involve a "number of negotiations and discussions." Yes that could refer to the mechanics of withdrawal. But it might be a broader invitation 4/

Then there's this ref to reforming the process for selecting the next Secretary General. If Micronesian nations *are* utterly intent on leaving PIF forever, why would they care about reforming the SG selection mechanism? Again, I wonder if this is an invitation for negotiation 5/

For those interested - full statement below, posted by the excellent @carreondet 6/ https://twitter.com/carreondet/status/1359115304069025800?s=20

In any case this is all highly speculative and I'm posting largely because 1) it's fascinating and 2) I'm stuck awake holding a sleeping baby who doesn't want to be put down. But keen for thoughts from experts cc @AnnaPowles @CainTess @jonathan_pryke et al