⚪Leeds United - An FPL analysis

Leeds is everybodys favorite #FPL team this year. Leaky defense, cheap reliable assets and fun to watch (mostly) - a recipe for succes!

But many managers have strong benches and multiple captaincy options each GW, so what to to with Leeds?

👇
I this thread I'm taking a look at Leeds' season so far, their best assets, when to bench or play their defs/attackers and when to target their defense with your captaincy.

Stats are taken fra @FFScout's members area and Sofascore.

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1️⃣ How are Leeds doing this season?

✅Goals: 38 (6th)
✅xG: 35.53 (6th)
✅BC: 46 (8th)
✅SiB: 223 (2nd)

❌Conceded: 38 (17th)
❌xGC: 39.67 (19th)
❌BCC: 57 (19th)
❌SiBC: 207 (19th)
✅CS: 7 (9th)
Reading into the numbers is like watching a Leeds game as it develops - lots and lots of action in both ends!

Leeds clearly attack very well and create lots of shots, BCs and also score high in xG, which means the goals scored are sustainable.
They also perform horribly in the other end, which is clearly the cost of their playing style. But again, most managers already know that..

Digging a lille deeper reveals that they actually keep a healthy amount of CSs - on level with more defensive minded team like BUR and TOT.
How can that be?

In the Championsship Leeds also kept a lot of CSs through dominating the possesion against weaker opponent and pressing them to commit mistakes. Could this be the case here as well?

Looking a the table the league is split in two halves - top 10 and the rest.
2️⃣ Testing the hypothesis:

Leeds defense - top 10 v bottom 10

♾Games: 11 v 11
❌Goals conceded: 26 v 12
❌CS: 2 v 5
❌BCC: 40 v 17
❌xGC: 28.08 v 11.79
❌SiBC: 136 v 71

Leeds are awful defensively against top 10 teams, where especially the games against MUN and CHE were bad.
In those two games alone they conceded 9 goals, 14 BCs, 38 SiB and 9.67 xG!

Generelly, Leeds are awful defensively when playing better teams, but actually post good numbers vs weaker teams.

The exception of the tendency was against MCI where they posted really good numbers.
Conclusion:
When playing top teams, bench your Leeds defenders and strongly consider playing one or more opponent attackers against them.

What about their attackers then? Should I bench those as well?

Let's find out!
3️⃣ Leeds attack - top 10 v bottom 10

♾Games: 11 v 11
✅Goals scored: 17 v 21
❌No goals: 1 v 3
❌BC: 27 v 19
❌xG: 18.42 v 17.11
❌SiB: 116 v 107

Surprisingly, the only area where Leeds perform worse against top 10 is goals scored. In every other category Leeds perform better!
Conclusion:
If you have Leeds attackers, then play them every week. Bielsa isn't going to rotate them, why should you?

There is no indication that Leeds attack perform worse when playing a better opponent - they mostly even perform better 😳
4️⃣ Testing the captaincy hypothesis

We have already established thst Leeds are really bad in defense against top 10 teams, but should they be targetted for captaincy when playing those teams?

Here is the standout captaincy option(-s) returns against Leeds:
Captaincy choices (first choice liste first):

GW1 v liv: Salah 20 pts, Mané 2 pts
GW4 v MCI: KDB 2 pts, Sterling 9 pts
GW6 v avl: None
GW7 v LEI: Vardy 14 pts
GW10 v eve: DCL 2 pts
GW11 v che: Werner 5 pts
GW12 v WHU: None
GW14 v mun: Bruno 17 pts

Cont.
GW17 v tot: Kane 12 pts, Son 13 pts
GW21 v LEI: Vardy injured
GW22 v EVE: DCL 9 pts

Disregarding GW21, GW12 and GW6 yields a total of 162 captaincy pts in 8 GWs or 20.25 pts/GW!

Conclusion:
If the opponent is a top 10 team with a clear captaincy option, pick him!
5️⃣ Bamford as captain?

We have already established that Leeds don't care who they play against, so what about captaining Bamford?

His numbers against top 10 v bottom 10:

♾Games: 11 v 11
♾Goals: 6 v 6
♾Assists: 4 v 4
♾Points: 66 v 64
❌Double digits: 2 v 1
❌xG: 7.44 v 5.22
Bamford don't care who he plays against and that unpredictability doesn't make him a good captaincy option IMO. Actually seems to be better v top 10.

However, his 3 double digits have all come against teams playing attacking football and allowing space in behind (FUL, avl, lei).
Looking at the DGW25, many might look to Bamford as a captaincy option but I think he is going to have a tough time at Molineux but he could very well return home against Southampton as they play similar football as teams he previously have done good against.
6️⃣ Tips for Leeds going forward

1. Captain your big hitters when playing Leeds!
2. Bench your Leeds defs against top 10 teams.
3. Bench your other defs against Leeds.
4. Play Leeds attackers every week.
5. Only consider Bamford as captain against high block, sub top teams.
Upcoming GWs to consider captains against Leeds:

GW28 v CHE: Don't see any clear captain here though.
GW31 v mci: Sterling/KDB
GW32 v LIV: Salah
GW33 v MUN: Bruno
GW35 v TOT: Kane/Son
7️⃣ Thanks for reading!

Became quite a lot to digest, but felt that every point was relevant.

If you enjoyed reading, I would really appreciate a like, follow and/or retweet ✌️

Oh, and buy Raphinha - he's class!
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