šŸ“Œ Thread: Why is Edinson Cavani the Most Prolific Striker in the Premier League?
šŸ“Š Edinson Cavani is in red-hot form, with the most non-penalty expected goals per 90 and the most goals per 90, in Premier League Midfielders and Forwards with > 8.0 90s to their name:

He is overperforming npxG too.

Data: @fbref
Is this performance sustainable? Yes, for two reasons:

1) He is currently performing at +1.2 npG - npxG; he has done this for the 2018/19 season at PSG in 18.6 90s, and at +5.4 in the 2017/18 season with 28.7 90s

2) Cavani's finishing overperformance is sustainable:
So how does he receive so many *good* chances per 90?

- Movement
- Decision Making
- Timing
šŸ“Œ Decision Making:

ā–¶ Cavani knows what run to make and when to make it

ā–¶ Cavani knows what positions to take up in the box

ā–¶ Cavani can ''sniff'' out chances; his instinct for capitalising on mistakes is as good as you will see
šŸ“Œ Decision Making:

ā–¶ Upon seeing the cross bypass Greenwood, Cavani halts his near post run

ā–¶ Cavani has identified that he won't reach the initial cross, thus must rely on a mistake

ā–¶ Cavani identifies the green zone as the area the ball can possibly land
Decision Making: Upon seeing the cross bypass Greenwood, Cavani halts his near post run Cavani has identified that he won't reach the initial cross, thus must rely on a mistake Cavani identifies the green zone as the area the ball can possibly land
Decision Making: Upon seeing the cross bypass Greenwood, Cavani halts his near post run Cavani has identified that he won't reach the initial cross, thus must rely on a mistake Cavani identifies the green zone as the area the ball can possibly land
Decision making also feeds into the choice of run - when to make a near/far post run, when to drop off, when to curve a run, when to dart across defenders, when to curve away, or when to simply hold his position between defenders.

Run selection is decision making and instinct.
šŸ“Œ Movement: Blindside Dart Across

ā–¶ Cavani begins on the blindside of a defender

ā–¶ Rashford looking up to cross is Cavani's trigger

ā–¶ Darting across Vestergaard gives Cavani the advantage

ā–¶ Cavani is free to head on goal
Movement: Blindside Dart Across Cavani begins on the blindside of a defender Rashford looking up to cross is Cavani's trigger Darting across Vestergaard gives Cavani the advantage Cavani is free to head on goal
Movement: Blindside Dart Across Cavani begins on the blindside of a defender Rashford looking up to cross is Cavani's trigger Darting across Vestergaard gives Cavani the advantage Cavani is free to head on goal
šŸ“Œ Movement: Blindside Late Arrival

ā–¶ Begins deeper, on the blindside of Trent who initially had to scan for Martial

ā–¶ Cavani ''sneaks'' in round the back

ā–¶ Cavani arrives with momentum and gains the aerial advantage over Trent

ā–¶ Timing of such a passive run is integral
šŸ“Œ Movement: Blindside to Eyeline Dismarking

ā–¶ Cavani begins on the blindside

ā–¶ Cavani feints across Ben Mee, surprising him and forcing him to involuntarily react o the front foot

ā–¶ Cavani then retreats into the pocket created for a clean shot on goal
Movement: Blindside to Eyeline Dismarking Cavani begins on the blindside Cavani feints across Ben Mee, surprising him and forcing him to involuntarily react o the front foot Cavani then retreats into the pocket created for a clean shot on goal
Movement: Blindside to Eyeline Dismarking Cavani begins on the blindside Cavani feints across Ben Mee, surprising him and forcing him to involuntarily react o the front foot Cavani then retreats into the pocket created for a clean shot on goal
šŸ“Œ movement: Simple Curved Run From Deep

ā–¶ Cavani is deep to playmake

ā–¶ Upon laying possession off, he curves away

ā–¶ Cavani scans which gap between defenders to penetrate

ā–¶ Degree of curve on run dictates when Cavani "arrives" in the box (see timing later)
movement: Simple Curved Run From Deep Cavani is deep to playmake Upon laying possession off, he curves away Cavani scans which gap between defenders to penetrate Degree of curve on run dictates when Cavani "arrives" in the box (see timing later)
movement: Simple Curved Run From Deep Cavani is deep to playmake Upon laying possession off, he curves away Cavani scans which gap between defenders to penetrate Degree of curve on run dictates when Cavani "arrives" in the box (see timing later)
movement: Simple Curved Run From Deep Cavani is deep to playmake Upon laying possession off, he curves away Cavani scans which gap between defenders to penetrate Degree of curve on run dictates when Cavani "arrives" in the box (see timing later)
movement: Simple Curved Run From Deep Cavani is deep to playmake Upon laying possession off, he curves away Cavani scans which gap between defenders to penetrate Degree of curve on run dictates when Cavani "arrives" in the box (see timing later)
šŸ“Œ Movement: Subtle Dismarking

ā–¶ A more subtle movement as United already have many bodies in the box, Cavani simply seeks to retain space between defenders

ā–¶ Most commonly done behind centreback, ahead of fullback

ā–¶ Cavani anchored in space to get a clean header on goal
Movement: Subtle Dismarking A more subtle movement as United already have many bodies in the box, Cavani simply seeks to retain space between defenders Most commonly done behind centreback, ahead of fullback Cavani anchored in space to get a clean header on goal
Movement: Subtle Dismarking A more subtle movement as United already have many bodies in the box, Cavani simply seeks to retain space between defenders Most commonly done behind centreback, ahead of fullback Cavani anchored in space to get a clean header on goal
Movement: Subtle Dismarking A more subtle movement as United already have many bodies in the box, Cavani simply seeks to retain space between defenders Most commonly done behind centreback, ahead of fullback Cavani anchored in space to get a clean header on goal
Movement: Subtle Dismarking A more subtle movement as United already have many bodies in the box, Cavani simply seeks to retain space between defenders Most commonly done behind centreback, ahead of fullback Cavani anchored in space to get a clean header on goal
šŸ“Œ Movement: Straight Dart Past Last Line

ā–¶ This is an all-or-nothing movement as Cavani will be offside/out of the game if mistimed or ball doesn't reach

ā–¶ Simply anticipating when/whether a pass will reach the ''no mans land'' between DFs/GK

ā–¶ Run with conviction
Movement: Straight Dart Past Last Line This is an all-or-nothing movement as Cavani will be offside/out of the game if mistimed or ball doesn't reach Simply anticipating when/whether a pass will reach the ''no mans land'' between DFs/GK Run with conviction
Movement: Straight Dart Past Last Line This is an all-or-nothing movement as Cavani will be offside/out of the game if mistimed or ball doesn't reach Simply anticipating when/whether a pass will reach the ''no mans land'' between DFs/GK Run with conviction
Movement: Straight Dart Past Last Line This is an all-or-nothing movement as Cavani will be offside/out of the game if mistimed or ball doesn't reach Simply anticipating when/whether a pass will reach the ''no mans land'' between DFs/GK Run with conviction
šŸ“Œ Timing:

- triggers
- curve to delay runs
- straight for quick runs
- committed/passive
- instinct
šŸ“Œ Timing: Triggers

ā–¶ Most common trigger is eye contact with crosser/crosser's head is up = time to begin run

ā–¶ Striker wants to arrive within a metre or two of final destination when crosser puts their head down to cross
Timing: Triggers Most common trigger is eye contact with crosser/crosser's head is up = time to begin run Striker wants to arrive within a metre or two of final destination when crosser puts their head down to cross
Timing: Triggers Most common trigger is eye contact with crosser/crosser's head is up = time to begin run Striker wants to arrive within a metre or two of final destination when crosser puts their head down to cross
Cavani is so often seen arriving onto a cross - this is a sign of very good run timing.

An example of how mistiming a run by just a second can result in a more difficult chance:

Cavani must overhead versus Arsenal
Mistiming by being too late can let defenders get there first; committing too early will see you run offside or ahead of the ball.
To summarise:

- Cavani's movement is sublime
- Experience and instinct allow Cavani to make more informed decisions over which run to use
- Cavani curves runs to help time them from deep
- Feinting, dismarking and/or remaining blindside leaves Cavani open to a range of chances
With one eye on the stats and one eye on Cavaniā€™s history of performance, we can reasonably predict that this form will continue.
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