As an analyst, you learn to look for inflection points. If a company you own and love suddenly struggles after blowing away estimates for several quarters, you owe it to clients to check your thesis. $TSLA has now posted several red flags in a month after 18 months of killing it.

1/ Missed FY’20 deliv guidance of 500K by 353 cars. If demand is greater than capacity, why couldn’t TSLA deliver 353 more cars? Perhaps Covid related delays caused customers to not take delivery of vehicles. My sense: $TSLA pulled out all stops to get to 500K but still missed.

2/ $TSLA 4Q Adj EPS of $.80 fell way short of $1.03 est, due to weak Auto GM% (20.7% ex-ZEV vs 24.0% exp). Mgmt blamed miss on one-time factors (Y ramp, supply chain shortages, pandemic inefficiencies, S/X refresh), but all those factors (now MIC Y ramp) are continuing into 1Q.

3/ Declined to provide FY’21 guidance, instead reiterating $TSLA L/T volume growth goal of 50%. This may reflect 1Q vols that could fall short of 167K consensus and buy-side est of 180K due to S/X refresh, Y MIC launch, supplier shortages, and EU M3 pricing that’s too high.

4/ The $1.5B investment in #Bitcoin forever links TSLA with the speculative digital currency. But why? The move dilutes earnings quality, where a few % return could cause an EPS swing of $.10-$.15/share. $TSLA investors will back out investment gains or losses as non-recurring.

5/ The $TSLA 4Q earnings call was a red flag. Mgmt didn’t discuss obvious questions (CyTruck delay, falling M3 EU share, Berlin delay, FSD beta rollout, S/X recall), nor the $1.5B investment in #Bitcoin . With a 200x FY’21 P/E, it seems prudent to step aside until things clear.

Just trying to keep it real. Long term, $TSLA is a great investment. Short term there are headwinds.