Read on Twitter
1/ $APD Q1 Earnings
EPS of $2.12 (-1%) misses by $0.06 [17 est, $2.08-2.31]
Revenue of $2.38B (+5% Y/Y) beats by $30M [12 est, $2.31-2.46B]
Adj EBITDA $932.1M (+3% Y/Y) vs cons $955.5M [9 est, $918.0-986.7M]; Margin of 39.2% (-110 bps y/y)
Stock -7%
https://twitter.com/SLC_Fund/status/1326655836517781504
![1/ $APD Q1 EarningsEPS of $2.12 (-1%) misses by $0.06 [17 est, $2.08-2.31]Revenue of $2.38B (+5% Y/Y) beats by $30M [12 est, $2.31-2.46B]Adj EBITDA $932.1M (+3% Y/Y) vs cons $955.5M [9 est, $918.0-986.7M]; Margin of 39.2% (-110 bps y/y)Stock -7% https://twitter.com/SLC_Fund/status/1326655836517781504](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtvsTdfXUAEn3u-.jpg "1/ $APD Q1 EarningsEPS of $2.12 (-1%) misses by $0.06 [17 est, $2.08-2.31]Revenue of $2.38B (+5% Y/Y) beats by $30M [12 est, $2.31-2.46B]Adj EBITDA $932.1M (+3% Y/Y) vs cons $955.5M [9 est, $918.0-986.7M]; Margin of 39.2% (-110 bps y/y)Stock -7% https://twitter.com/SLC_Fund/status/1326655836517781504")
![1/ $APD Q1 EarningsEPS of $2.12 (-1%) misses by $0.06 [17 est, $2.08-2.31]Revenue of $2.38B (+5% Y/Y) beats by $30M [12 est, $2.31-2.46B]Adj EBITDA $932.1M (+3% Y/Y) vs cons $955.5M [9 est, $918.0-986.7M]; Margin of 39.2% (-110 bps y/y)Stock -7% https://twitter.com/SLC_Fund/status/1326655836517781504](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtvsVQfXAAIIhTZ.jpg "1/ $APD Q1 EarningsEPS of $2.12 (-1%) misses by $0.06 [17 est, $2.08-2.31]Revenue of $2.38B (+5% Y/Y) beats by $30M [12 est, $2.31-2.46B]Adj EBITDA $932.1M (+3% Y/Y) vs cons $955.5M [9 est, $918.0-986.7M]; Margin of 39.2% (-110 bps y/y)Stock -7% https://twitter.com/SLC_Fund/status/1326655836517781504")
![1/ $APD Q1 EarningsEPS of $2.12 (-1%) misses by $0.06 [17 est, $2.08-2.31]Revenue of $2.38B (+5% Y/Y) beats by $30M [12 est, $2.31-2.46B]Adj EBITDA $932.1M (+3% Y/Y) vs cons $955.5M [9 est, $918.0-986.7M]; Margin of 39.2% (-110 bps y/y)Stock -7% https://twitter.com/SLC_Fund/status/1326655836517781504](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtvsWkqWgAMeHGJ.jpg "1/ $APD Q1 EarningsEPS of $2.12 (-1%) misses by $0.06 [17 est, $2.08-2.31]Revenue of $2.38B (+5% Y/Y) beats by $30M [12 est, $2.31-2.46B]Adj EBITDA $932.1M (+3% Y/Y) vs cons $955.5M [9 est, $918.0-986.7M]; Margin of 39.2% (-110 bps y/y)Stock -7% https://twitter.com/SLC_Fund/status/1326655836517781504")
![1/ $APD Q1 EarningsEPS of $2.12 (-1%) misses by $0.06 [17 est, $2.08-2.31]Revenue of $2.38B (+5% Y/Y) beats by $30M [12 est, $2.31-2.46B]Adj EBITDA $932.1M (+3% Y/Y) vs cons $955.5M [9 est, $918.0-986.7M]; Margin of 39.2% (-110 bps y/y)Stock -7% https://twitter.com/SLC_Fund/status/1326655836517781504](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EtvwZ39WYAE8Zhs.png "1/ $APD Q1 EarningsEPS of $2.12 (-1%) misses by $0.06 [17 est, $2.08-2.31]Revenue of $2.38B (+5% Y/Y) beats by $30M [12 est, $2.31-2.46B]Adj EBITDA $932.1M (+3% Y/Y) vs cons $955.5M [9 est, $918.0-986.7M]; Margin of 39.2% (-110 bps y/y)Stock -7% https://twitter.com/SLC_Fund/status/1326655836517781504")
EPS of $2.12 (-1%) misses by $0.06 [17 est, $2.08-2.31]
Revenue of $2.38B (+5% Y/Y) beats by $30M [12 est, $2.31-2.46B]
Adj EBITDA $932.1M (+3% Y/Y) vs cons $955.5M [9 est, $918.0-986.7M]; Margin of 39.2% (-110 bps y/y)
Stock -7%
https://twitter.com/SLC_Fund/status/1326655836517781504
2/ Lu’An
APD temporarily reduced fixed monthly fee while plant was shut down (received pmt for Oct/Nov/Dec)
Lu'An extended contract with APD & overall return will actually be better than before
"Not as worried about Lu’An as investors seem to be”
APD temporarily reduced fixed monthly fee while plant was shut down (received pmt for Oct/Nov/Dec)
Lu'An extended contract with APD & overall return will actually be better than before
"Not as worried about Lu’An as investors seem to be”
3/ Jazan
"Much more optimistic than three months ago"
Two issues
1) Negotiation on allocating debt interest savings (due to lower rates)
2) Financing $7.2B of debt is not easy
Hopefully close May/June
Added to EPS when financials close (in-line w/ projection)
"Much more optimistic than three months ago"
Two issues
1) Negotiation on allocating debt interest savings (due to lower rates)
2) Financing $7.2B of debt is not easy
Hopefully close May/June
Added to EPS when financials close (in-line w/ projection)
4/ Summary
Long-term growth engine of 10%+ EPS growth is in tact
Opportunities - gasification, carbon capture, and hydrogen for mobility (first mover)
50% on-site business
Purchased a little $APD
Long-term growth engine of 10%+ EPS growth is in tact
Opportunities - gasification, carbon capture, and hydrogen for mobility (first mover)
50% on-site business
Purchased a little $APD
GS would own $APD
Shares have de-risked as multiple is down 5 turns and the company is hopefully past peak negative news
Unclear how much of Lu'An and Jazan are baked into consensus
Shares have de-risked as multiple is down 5 turns and the company is hopefully past peak negative news
Unclear how much of Lu'An and Jazan are baked into consensus
