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As each day passes Scotland seems to get closer to the full vaccination of older care homes - today’s figure was 99.6% with only 135 people left to reach the magic 100%. An impressive feat but is all as it seems? 1/
The stat is featuring prominently in Scottish government briefings and is used as justification for Scotland’s more prudent vaccination approach. Here’s the First Minister....2/
The 99.6% comes from taking the 29,865 vaccinations across all care home residents (more on this later) as a proportion of the total elderly care home population. This is a difficult figure to arrive at as it is constantly changing each day. 3/
The total population being used is 30,000 - an estimate which is derived from data uploaded to the TURAS Care Home Safety Tool as at 14th January. 4/
This presents the first issue as the numbers are rounded to the nearest ‘000 so this figure could actually be as high as 30,499 which would reduce take up to 98% - a still impressive figure. 5/
The next issue is that the data is based on self reporting and the technical note makes it clear that it’s not completed by all care homes and not all update daily - it is not quality assured. 6/
The last time official data was collated was in 2019 which showed older care home resident numbers of 32,445 as set out in the technical note. If this was accurate today the coverage would reduce down to 92%. 7/
So what’s correct? The 99.6% certainly doesn’t pass the smell test. In a frail elderly population there will be more than 135 residents who either refused the vaccine or were too ill to take it. Once we cross the 30k(100%) barrier it will undermine the robustness of this data. 8/
How can you vaccinate more than 100% of elderly residents?! In addition there is something funny going on with the percentage of total care homes residents being reported (ie, all adults in care homes not just older care). 9/
The relevant percentage is 93% for this group and is based on a population of 32,000. But the 93% is still based on the same 29,865 used in the older care home stat! Both can’t be right! Here’s the detailed data tab which sums up the issue.... 10/
Does this mean that no younger care homes residents have been vaccinated, or more realistically does the 29,865 also include some of this group - meaning that the 99.6% is overstated. Problematic to say the least. 11/
At worst the data is over counting the vaccines given to older care homes residents and understating the total population - in both cases this would artificially push up the coverage. It is very surprising that the 99.6% stat is being used so prominently. 12/
It looks like a statistical sleight of hand and is not being sufficiently challenged. I suspect there is no material variance across the English and Scottish roll outs in care homes, other than the different approach to political spin by each government. 13/
This won’t be unique to Scotland - this is a difficult population to survey. Comparing different UK nations will be all but impossible. We should be wary about saying one nation is doing better than another - we’re all doing great. 14/ ends.
