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eCommerce was in its spring training in 2000,
1st innings was until Covid,
2nd innings was 2020-2021.
The 3rd innings will benefit enablers - payments $FSRV, $AFRM, $BFT, $FTOC, etc.
This is the right time for them. Unlike Orbital space which is in Spring training now.
1st innings was until Covid,
2nd innings was 2020-2021.
The 3rd innings will benefit enablers - payments $FSRV, $AFRM, $BFT, $FTOC, etc.
This is the right time for them. Unlike Orbital space which is in Spring training now.
The data to support:
1. 1996 - 2005: eCommerce = < 3% of Retail
2. 2005 - 2019: eComm = < 8% of Retail
3. 2020 - 13% of Retail
Payments
$AFRM, $PYPL, etc. until 2020 < 3% of Online payments
2021 - these payments will move to 1st innings.
Long #FinTech Long $FSRV $PYPL $ARFM
1. 1996 - 2005: eCommerce = < 3% of Retail
2. 2005 - 2019: eComm = < 8% of Retail
3. 2020 - 13% of Retail
Payments
$AFRM, $PYPL, etc. until 2020 < 3% of Online payments
2021 - these payments will move to 1st innings.
Long #FinTech Long $FSRV $PYPL $ARFM
This data is from the US Census Bureau, so not something to take lightly.
https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/data/pdf/ec_current.pdf
https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/data/pdf/ec_current.pdf
There are 5 categories of enablers:
1. Payments - $FSRV, $PYPL, $AFRM, $BFT, $FTOC etc.
2. Shipping - multiple SaaS shipping cos will be SPACed
3. Marketplace sellers - $MWK etc.
4. Software providers: $BIGC, $SHOP etc.
5. Advertising: $PINS, TikTok, etc.
1. Payments - $FSRV, $PYPL, $AFRM, $BFT, $FTOC etc.
2. Shipping - multiple SaaS shipping cos will be SPACed
3. Marketplace sellers - $MWK etc.
4. Software providers: $BIGC, $SHOP etc.
5. Advertising: $PINS, TikTok, etc.
By now you know I care about: Markets, Markets, Markets. Size, Dynamics, Structure, Momentum and Growth
1. Payments: $1.3T WW - Ginormous
2. Shipping - $156B - US only dont have WW
3. Sellers - $90B WW
4. Software $11B WW (just S/W in eCom)
5. Ads: $80B WW (just ads in eCom)
1. Payments: $1.3T WW - Ginormous
2. Shipping - $156B - US only dont have WW
3. Sellers - $90B WW
4. Software $11B WW (just S/W in eCom)
5. Ads: $80B WW (just ads in eCom)
If you had to put 10-25% of your portfolio in a sector I would put it in eCommerce and enablers.
Thanks to @skaushi for the discussion this morning that sparked this thread.
Thanks to @skaushi for the discussion this morning that sparked this thread.
Here is how to think about "adoption" percentages and curve. This is from Crossing the Chasm, by Geoffrey Moore
