Glad to announce the publication of the @globalriskfs/ @evolutionQinc 2020 Quantum Threat Timeline Report, which I co-authored with Michele Mosca. This is an update of the 2019 report, and includes the analysis of responses from a larger set (44) of world leading experts

Short https://twitter.com/evolutionQinc/status/1358853895817207808

The report is freely available at https://evolutionq.com/quantum-threat-timeline-2020.html

The goal is that of providing an idea of when we may expect to see quantum computers that are cryptogrphically relevant, that is, able to break or weaken some of the presently used crytogaphic schemes.

The point is...

... that, even if such quantum computers may only become available in quite some time, the moment to evaluate the need to move to post-quantum solutions that may prevent future breaches is NOW.

Each organization has to consider the migration time for their system(s) & ...

... the "shelf time" of the data to keep secure. If the migration time and the shelf time combined are more than the time needed for the threat to become real, it means trouble. This is particularly true because rushing the migration may introduce weaknesses that might be...

...exploited even by "classical means" that do not necessitate a quantum computer

So, how much time do we have before a cryptographically relevant quantum computer is built? Nobody knows exactly, for the simple reason that building such a quantum computer is a formidable task..

...that requires pushing the boundaries of knowledge and technology. Nonetheless, great progress is being made, and there is presently a global race that sees governments, well-established companies, and start-ups compete and collaborate towards such a goal.

Our report...

... provides an introduction to some important concepts in quantum computing, and analyzes the responses of 44 world leading experts in various areas (both for theory and experiments), working both in academia and industry, from all over the world...

Such experts were asked to provide their best estimates with respect to key questions related to the statusof and the future of quantum computing research.

The opinions we collected range from which platforms are the most promising...

... to the likelihood of the existence of a digital quantum computer (that is, a computer that can implement standard quantum algorithms, like Shor's factoring, making use of error correction) able to factorize a 2048-bit number...

... This being the second installment of our report based on a survey of experts' opinions, we are also able to track changes in such opinions, due to, e.g., recent development, both within and without the field

We have also asked the experts to indicate to what extent the...

...pandemic is likely to impact the quantum threat timeline, slowing down at least in the short period the development of quantum computers

We have asked them also to indicate what they consider to be the next important milestone in quantum computing research and technology,...

... and asked to provide time estimates for a breakthroughs/milestone towards full fault tolerance.

The experts have also provided candid&illuminating general comments about the status and the future of the field.

But read in the report! https://evolutionq.com/quantum-threat-timeline-2020.html

Finally, I'd like to thank the experts who contributed to the report, including

@quantumashley @jfitzsimons @preskill @PeterShor1 @dabacon @aekert @krystasvore @danbrowne77 @circuitqed @fgslbrandao @MichaelSBrett @quantumstef

& all the others who may or may not be on Twitter.