**THREAD**

I want to talk mindset and the recent move on $ETH.

Most people use the phrase "if you do/did X you're not going to make it." I'd like to use that as the premise of this thread but in a less patronising and thoughtful way.

Let me expand.

RTs appreciated.

ETH consolidated under it's ATH for 30 days.
BTC consolidated under it's ATH for 27 days.

But the range for ETH for a lot of people felt a lot longer than this in trying to anticipate the breakout.

This was largely because BTC had melted faces and other alts were popping.

During any period of chop and consolidation, you'll inevitably flip bias multiple times. Things look bullish, things look bearish, you change often.

But the reality of this situation is that for any major break, we need time, people need to position and we need to shake you out.

Ranges develop with time, so after larger exp6ansions (like ETH moving 600 -> 1000) there has to be some appreciation that things will slow down and reset. We can't go vertical forever. Appreciate that time is important in order to build and establish ranges.

1. "If you didn't get long on a breakout you're not going to make it."

The thought process here has to be "WHAT IS THE HTF PICTURE?" - We were consolidating under ATH, it was hugely significant when it broke. You need to keep that in mind, BTC showed the way.

Despite flipping biases and getting shaken out, the key came with the movement through the top of the range and expansion. This is where you forget everything else and hop aboard. It is a massive HTF move and confirmation, you don't ignore them.

2. "If you shorted the breakout, you're probably not going to make it."

Anything that breaks into ATH is not shortable. You do not short price discovery, you're purely gambling. In 95% of instances you'll find that your short entries would have been great long entries.

3. "If you believed CME is bearish for ETH, you're probably not going to make it."

This plays into a wider thought process. Playing into and absorbing what you're reading on Twitter. The CME discussion was something that was discussed a lot yesterday and in the weeks prior.

On stream I was asked a number of times about it. The reason people are asking? Because they see people on Twitter discussing and sharing ideas on what it means. They use a single BTC data point to confirm the fear element and people act accordingly.

Never position based on what Twitter are saying, especially when there is limited data.

Remember what I discussed earlier? BIG HTF breakout into price discovery, why would you want to move out of longs or even worse, short?

Lastly ETH will consolidate, it will go through periods of choppy action (again, remember what I said earlier about strong moves and what happens) - do not expect things to continue vertically.

Do not allow yourself to become shaken out by price action that develops in price discovery. Price will chop, move up and down and once again you may find your bias flipping.

One way I keep myself grounded is by asking the question when I look at a chart:

"What is the last significant HTF event that occurred here?"

For ETH, that's a break of a 30 day consolidation and price discovery. That helps me better think about my response to price on LTFs.

I hope some of these thoughts help you to think about the way you may be actioning your trades.

A lot of alts will be in this position over the coming weeks and many have been already.

Learn from mistakes and take advantage, otherwise you really might not make it...