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1) Some thoughts on GOP strategy on Trump impeachment. Current belief is Trump is needed to hold GOP voters, so GOP needs to acquit him. Thus acquittal is certain. BUT: if after acquittal Trump suffers from the evidence presented at the trial, or has legal problems or other...
2) issues arise that weaken Trump's appeal, GOP will suffer from being tied to acquittal. Worst case is Trump gets convicted of crimes and goes to jail; then every GOP Senator who voted for acquittal becomes vulnerable as someone who voted to shield a criminal. Thus GOP vote is
3) quite a gamble. A vote to acquit wagers that Trump will emerge stronger and more popular from the impeachment trial and all his other legal and financial problems in the next two to four years. That seems a VERY big, even foolish risk.
A vote to convict may anger Trump voters
A vote to convict may anger Trump voters
4) now, but severs the tie from the GOP to Trump, and lowers GOP liability for anything Trump may do or have happen before 2020, possibly giving GOP a fresh start and open field for other candidates. Still, Trump puts GOP is a terrible bind. Supporting him to keep the crazies
and keep the GOP the "Trump party" may help some GOP candidates in primaries and solid Red districts, but increases their risk of loss anywhere Dems and independents are a big portion of voters (e.g. AZ, GA, and increasingly TX and FL). If TX and FL go the way of AZ and GA, then
6) the GOP loses all national significance for a decade or more. At the same time, if the GOP goes against Trump and loses the extreme Trump voters, who will stay home if they can't vote for Trump and Trumpists, they may lose close elections in swing states and districts. So it
7) looks to me like impeachment is a WIN-WIN strategy for Democrats. IF GOP votes to acquit, they become the "Trump party" and are tied to all his COVID failures, legal troubles and scandals which could hurt them badly in close elections; and if the GOP votes to convict it loses
8) the extreme Trumpist voters, which could hurt them badly in close elections. Either way, the Dems should emerge stronger, as the impeachment vote should cost the GOP a slice of moderate voters if they acquit, and a slice of extreme voters if the convict. Thus, as Lindsey
9) Graham predicted, having chosen to make Trump President, and then having to defend his foreseeably unethical, incompetent, and illegal behavior in office, will destroy the Republican party.
