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Chinese military-civil fusion (MCF): what is it, who's involved, and how should U.S. policymakers think about it. A thread. 1/8
1. MCF is Chinese government strategy that blurs the lines between the defense and civilian sectors to improve China's position as a global military and economic competitor. 2/8
Anyone who wants to learn more about WHAT MCF is should read the following by @PeterWood_PDW and Alex Stone. It provides the most recent and comprehensive assessment of China's MCF capabilities. This report is a gold mine. 3/8
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e356cfae72e4563b10cd310/t/5ee37fc2fcb96f58706a52e1/1591967685829/CASI+China%27s+Military+Civil+Fusion+Strategy-+Full+final.pdf
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e356cfae72e4563b10cd310/t/5ee37fc2fcb96f58706a52e1/1591967685829/CASI+China%27s+Military+Civil+Fusion+Strategy-+Full+final.pdf
2. Who's involved in MCF? This is harder question to answer. @EBKania and @lorandlaskai astutely point out two sides to this debate: one that thinks all Chinese entities are a threat, and another that takes a more nuanced approach. 4/8 https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/myths-and-realities-of-chinas-military-civil-fusion-strategy
In an effort to answer this question, @RyanFedasiuk and I found that 3/4 of Chinese grads recruited by defense SOEs in 2019 were from China's "Seven Sons of National Defense," a group of univs administered directly by MIIT. They are key MCF players. 5/8 https://cset.georgetown.edu/research/universities-and-the-chinese-defense-technology-workforce/
3. How should policymakers address MCF? Can it be used to shape policy? I argue yes. USG so far appears to be using MCF in a targeted and nuanced manner. The May 2020 Presidential Proclamation is a great example. 6/8 https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/02/05/dont-underestimate-chinas-military-civil-fusion-efforts/
In our latest @CSETGeorgetown piece, @RyanFedasiuk, @r_zwetsloot, and I estimate that the Proclamation may only affect 1% of all Chinese students studying in the US, and 20% of those annually enrolled in STEM. 7/8 https://cset.georgetown.edu/research/assessing-the-scope-of-u-s-visa-restrictions-on-chinese-students/
However, MCF will change/shift going forward, and US policymakers and researchers need to stay on top of MCF's developments. Underestimating or mischaracterizing MCF could have significant implications for global supply chains, talent flows, and much more. 8/8
