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Much of what Ds and Rs believe about how voting rights would impact their electoral prospects is dubious or just flat wrong.
I lay out the data in @monthly https://washingtonmonthly.com/2021/02/08/making-it-easier-to-vote-is-good-for-republicans-too/ but here are some highlights...
I lay out the data in @monthly https://washingtonmonthly.com/2021/02/08/making-it-easier-to-vote-is-good-for-republicans-too/ but here are some highlights...
Would boosting turnout via mail/early/same-day reg help Ds?
* @knightfdn found that the 100M non-voters/rare voters pool has just a very slight D plurality (33% D 30% R 18% 3rd party) and leans socially conservative https://knightfoundation.org/press/releases/new-study-sheds-light-on-the-100-million-americans-who-dont-vote-their-political-views-and-what-they-think-about-2020/
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* @knightfdn found that the 100M non-voters/rare voters pool has just a very slight D plurality (33% D 30% R 18% 3rd party) and leans socially conservative https://knightfoundation.org/press/releases/new-study-sheds-light-on-the-100-million-americans-who-dont-vote-their-political-views-and-what-they-think-about-2020/
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* 38,957,440 more people voted for the House in '20 than '18, and Republicans *increased* their share of the House popular vote by 2.9 percentage points, while flipping 13 seats. Most of those seats were in states with long histories of mail/early vote.
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Would enfranchising non-incarcerated ex-felons/felons help Ds?
* You might think so because that population is disproportionately Black. But it is not *majority* Black; it's about 1/3 (1.29M out of 3.87M)
* About 2M is white. Mostly non-college men. Prime GOP voters.
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* You might think so because that population is disproportionately Black. But it is not *majority* Black; it's about 1/3 (1.29M out of 3.87M)
* About 2M is white. Mostly non-college men. Prime GOP voters.
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* The ability for non-incarcerated ex-felons/felons to tip elections is small because most probably won't register and vote.
FL has the highest population of disenfranchised felons. Some have gotten their rights back, but the % registering and voting is small...
FL has the highest population of disenfranchised felons. Some have gotten their rights back, but the % registering and voting is small...
...and in most states where non-incarcerated ex-felons/felons can't vote, the number affected is much smaller than in FL
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Isn't the GOP determined to further suppress the vote with stricter voter ID laws?
* Republicans have been working at that for almost a decade. Most states have some form of voter ID law now. It hasn't worked. Biden flipped 3 states with strict voter ID laws (AZ, GA, WI)
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* Republicans have been working at that for almost a decade. Most states have some form of voter ID law now. It hasn't worked. Biden flipped 3 states with strict voter ID laws (AZ, GA, WI)
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* A 2019 study found "strict ID laws have no significant negative effect on registration or turnout, overall or for any subgroup..." The evidence suggests parties/people adapt to the laws. Plus, the attempt at suppression just motivates Ds to work harder.
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The R operatives who I talked to with are frustrated their party isn't investing in ground efforts & leaving votes on the table
If more Rs understood that there are plenty of votes for them to win through expanded access, they'd be less inclined to futilely pursue suppression
If more Rs understood that there are plenty of votes for them to win through expanded access, they'd be less inclined to futilely pursue suppression
You can read the rest here. Share with your Republican friends in Congress and state legislatures. Maybe we can get somewhere. https://washingtonmonthly.com/2021/02/08/making-it-easier-to-vote-is-good-for-republicans-too/
